Peter Brandt Warns: If This Bitcoin Level Breaks, $49K Could Be Next

Bitcoin price has fallen by over 6% over the past 24 hours to $65,703, extending a broader decline across digital assets as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed investors away from risk-sensitive markets. At press time, the BTC price was trading at $66,023, down 5.40%. The latest move came as the U.S.-Iran conflict intensified and reports pointed to ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns about oil supply, inflation, and the trajectory of U.S. interest rates.

The decline also triggered heavy pressure on derivatives. Market data cited in recent coverage showed that more than $102 million in Bitcoin positions were liquidated during the past 24 hours. Over the last month, total Bitcoin liquidations have reached about $3.9 billion as traders reduced leverage during repeated downside moves.

Analysts tied the latest sell-off to a broader macro risk-off backdrop, with oil prices rising and expectations for tighter Federal Reserve policy returning to the focus.

Bitcoin’s price weakness has been accompanied by softer participation across the network. That combination has added to concern that recent rebounds may lack strong internal support. With Bitcoin now pressing a key support region, traders are watching whether the market can stabilize above a level that technical analysts, including Peter Brandt, view as critical for the next phase of price action.

Macro Stress and Liquidation Pressure on Bitcoin

The latest Bitcoin drop followed reports that peace discussions involving the United States and Iran had broken down, while the Strait of Hormuz remained closed. That development supported a flight from risk assets and added to inflation concerns as energy prices moved higher. For digital assets, the result was renewed selling in an already fragile market.

Bitcoin initially traded lower alongside other major cryptocurrencies, but the magnitude of the move stood out because it occurred during a period of heavy liquidation. Market participants have been unwinding positions for weeks, and the latest decline added to that trend. As leverage left the market, price losses accelerated, pushing Bitcoin back toward a support band that had already been tested earlier in the month.

At the same time, broader macro conditions remain unfriendly for speculative assets. Higher oil prices, a stronger dollar, and firmer rate expectations have kept pressure on Bitcoin and other growth-linked markets. That backdrop has left traders focused on whether support can hold before another wave of selling develops.

On-Chain Activity Declines as Network Participation Slows

Bitcoin’s internal activity has also weakened. Active addresses, one of the most widely used metrics for network participation, have dropped from 938,609 on August 8, 2025, to 655,908 on March 25, 2026. That marks a 30.12% contraction, based on the figures cited in the latest market analysis.

The slowdown is visible across rolling averages as well. The seven-day moving average fell from 777,283 to 612,972, while the 30-day moving average declined from 743,714 to 636,314. Those readings suggest the drop in activity is not limited to a single day or short period.

Source: CryptoQuant

When price falls and active addresses decline at the same time, traders often read it as a sign of weaker demand and reduced capital movement on-chain. That matters because price stabilization without stronger network use can leave recoveries vulnerable to fresh selling. For now, on-chain data shows a market that is not only repricing lower but also seeing less participation.

Brandt Chart Levels Keep $49K in Focus

On the weekly chart, Bitcoin appears to have completed a multi-month topping structure after failing near the $120,000 to $125,000 region. The price then broke rising channel support below and moved under the 18-week moving average, a change that pointed to weaker momentum. Peter Brandt’s classical chart approach treats that type of breakdown as a sign of distribution rather than continuation.

Source: X

The most important support area now sits around $65,000, with a recent low near $62,590. Brandt’s framework suggests that if this support zone fails on a weekly close, the next major downside target could be around $49,000, which aligns with prior structural support.

On the daily chart, Bitcoin is also forming a rising wedge, a bearish continuation pattern defined by converging trendlines. Immediate resistance sits near $71,700 and then $74,500, while near-term support remains between $65,000 and $66,000. A break below that lower boundary could send Bitcoin toward $60,000 first, with $49,000 remaining the larger weekly target if selling pressure continues.