FTX Estate to Unlock 11.2M SOL ($2.06B) on March 1, Impact on SOL?

The cryptocurrency market is bracing for the unlocking of 11.2 million Solana (SOL) tokens on March 1st, 2025, representing a significant event stemming from the FTX bankruptcy proceedings.

Valued at approximately $2.06 billion at current market prices, this release constitutes over 2.2% of Solana’s circulating supply, prompting speculation regarding its potential impact on the market.

Moreover, this substantial quantity of SOL originates from three separate auctions conducted by the FTX estate, wherein approximately 41 million $SOL was sold to various investors, including prominent players such as Galaxy Digital, Pantera Capital, and Figure.

$SOL Pricing Auction Data

Analysis of the auction data reveals a tiered pricing structure. Galaxy Digital secured the largest tranche, acquiring 25.52 million SOL for $64 per token, yielding a substantial return of 187% at current market rates.

A second group of buyers, including Pantera Capital and others, purchased 13.67 million SOL at $95 per token, realizing a return of approximately 93%. A final group, including Figure and other investors, acquired 1.8 million SOL at $102 per token, resulting in an 80% return.

The impending unlock of 11.2 million SOL raises the question of potential market volatility. While the considerable profits already realized by the purchasers might mitigate the likelihood of a large-scale sell-off, the inherent unpredictability of market dynamics and investor behavior cannot be discounted.

The sheer volume of tokens involved represents a considerable percentage of the circulating supply, making it a potentially significant market-moving event. Several market analysts offer differing perspectives. Some, like Matt Maximo, an investor at VanEck, express confidence, citing conversations with buyers who reportedly intend to hold their SOL until they achieve a tenfold return on their investment.

As Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital assets, aptly observes,

“The FTX estate sale of Solana token attracted many new investors to SOL. We will soon learn how many of them stick around for the long term.”

SOL Price Action

Solana (SOL) is currently trading at $184.56, unable to surpass the significant $200 resistance level. Following its early February decline alongside other cryptocurrencies, the digital asset appears to be consolidating technically. However, 24-hour trading volume has surged to over $3 billion, an 85% increase from the previous day, indicating heightened market activity. Despite this, the current price remains 37.37% below its all-time high.

Over the past month, SOL has experienced a 2% decline but is down 30% from its peak of $286 during this period. The scheduled unlocking of $2 billion worth of SOL on March 1st could exacerbate downward price pressure.

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