Bitcoin Traders Eye $100K as Decoupling Trend Emerges and Gold Paves the Way

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing evidence of decoupling from its usual correlation with traditional financial assets like U.S. equities and gold. Analysts say this is going to be instrumental in the acceleration of BTC’s trajectory towards the $100,000 milestone — and much faster than expected.

BTC Rebounds as Stocks and Gold Falter

After U.S. President Donald Trump announced global tariffs on April 2, the financial markets were shaken. The S&P 500 fell more than 10% this week, and gold, which had recently reached an all-time high of $3,167, quickly dropped 4.8%. Bitcoin saw a brief 3% dip to around $82,500, but responded with a recovery of 4.5% back up to over $84,700.This recovery has left crypto analysts feeling upbeat, especially as Bitcoin appears to be decoupling from other major assets.

A “Gold Leads, Bitcoin Follows” Pattern?

There has been a growing story for market observers suggesting that historically, gold rallies first, and then bitcoin rallies… gold rallied 15% from 2018 to 2020, then bitcoin went up over 500% in two years, shortly after. There are analysts like MacroScope suggesting that we could be at a critical juncture. If gold is finishing its rally, it could mean that Bitcoin is next in line for a big rally, perhaps over the $100,000 level. Mike Alfred, founder of Alpine Fox, believes that Bitcoin could expect a multiplier of 10 times or more versus gold in the rally, based on similar periods and cycles in the past.

Caution Flags: Bearish Fractal Appears

However, not all signals are bullish. A concerning pattern is forming in the Bitcoin-to-Gold (BTC/XAU) ratio chart — one last seen in 2021, just before a major drop.

The BTC/XAU ratio is now testing its key support level at the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA). In past cycles, this level acted as a trigger for a deeper decline, potentially pushing BTC as low as $65,000 or even $20,000 if macroeconomic conditions worsen.

A bounce from this EMA level would negate the bearish pattern, but traders are watching this closely.

US Recession Fears Cloud Bitcoin’s Path

In addition to the metrics and ratios, the bigger economic picture is increasing uncertainty. Trump’s move to ramp up tariffs is raising fears that an extended trade war could lead us to a recession. In a recessionary environment, investors typically shun risky assets, including Bitcoin. Further adding pressure, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently disagreed with prospects for near-term rate cuts, adding, after indicating uneven progress on inflation, in light of high-interest rates, that the delayed response with reductions of rates could temper any bullish momentum for Bitcoin.

Bottom Line

Bitcoin’s recent strength during market turbulence is encouraging, and history supports the idea of a post-gold rally for BTC. But risks remain, including bearish chart patterns and macroeconomic headwinds. Whether Bitcoin surges toward $100K or retreats to lower support levels may depend on how these factors unfold in the coming weeks.

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