Bitcoin May Dip Before Jackson Hole Conference, Says Arthur Hayes

In the next few weeks leading up to the Jackson Hole conference in the United States, bitcoin (BTC) could either continue trading sideways or take a slightly negative turn. These were the words of Arthur Hayes, co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX and chief investment officer (CIO) of the family office Maelstrom Fund, in his latest article.

In the report, titled Quid Pro Stablecoin, Hayes cited several reasons that could lead to his BTC prediction. One major factor is U.S. President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill, which is likely to trigger a “short lull in dollar liquidity” after it is passed.

Sideways or Slightly Negative Movement

Hayes explained that the bill, which just passed the Senate, raises the American debt limit. With a hiked debt ceiling, Trump will be able to explore additional borrowing capacity to fund his agenda, refilling the Treasury General Account (TGA). This means the Treasury will resume net borrowing, exerting a significant impact on dollar liquidity.

Per Arthur Hayes’ prediction, the TGA refill may interrupt the bull market for a short period. This break will likely be between now and the timeline of the Jackson Hole Symposium, scheduled for August 21-23. 

If the market plays out as predicted, then BTC could fall below $95,000 to $90,000. Alternatively, it could remain above $100,000, but without a decisive move above its all-time high (ATH) of $112,000. Bitcoin is likely to resume its bull run after the debt has been raised and the TGA is mostly refilled in September. 

Impact of the Genius Act

Before the end of August, Arthur Hayes says Maelstrom will hold a large amount of staked Ethena USD (sUSDe). The firm has already exited most of its altcoin positions because the market could get “smoked” without a clear liquidity catalyst. The family office could also reduce its exposure to BTC, depending on the asset’s price action.

While revealing his BTC prediction, the Maelstrom CIO also touched on stablecoins. He mentioned the impact of the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act, which the Senate recently passed. 

Hayes believes the GENIUS Act would help the U.S. government ensure that non-bank-issued stablecoins cannot compete on a large scale. In essence, the U.S. government has handed the keys to the stablecoin industry to big banks.

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