Ethereum (ETH) Price Bottom When? Technicals Leave Traders Tangled

NOIDA (CoinChapter.com) — Ethereum (ETH) price plunged to $1,500 on April 7, marking its lowest level since early 2023. The decline followed a broader market selloff triggered by macroeconomic pressure, Trump’s revived trade war stance, and long-liquidation events.

The downturn accelerated after President Donald Trump announced aggressive new tariffs on Chinese imports, including rates as high as 60%. These proposals reignited fears of a renewed U.S.-China trade war and sent risk assets tumbling across global markets. Equities, crypto, and tech stocks saw heavy losses as investors repositioned for increased economic friction.

Ethereum’s losses mirrored those of other altcoins, but its steep decline relative to Bitcoin suggested waning investor confidence in the platform’s near-term upside. Though the prime altcoin is recovering on April 8, the price action lacks conviction.

Traders Diverge on ETH Outlook

Ethereum’s latest drop has polarized the trading community. Several analysts have pointed to the $1,500 to $1,800 range as a historic accumulation zone, citing previous rebounds from similar levels. One market participant referred to the current setup as a “generational buying opportunity,” highlighting how sharp selloffs often precede long-term trend reversals. A technical chart shared by the analyst emphasized the support cluster around $1,500, which has historically attracted strong buy-side volume.

Others echoed similar confidence. One trader argued that ETH’s plunge below realized price meant most holders were now underwater—typically a long-term accumulation signal. This price level, representing the average cost basis of all ETH in circulation, has marked macro bottoms during past cycles.

Another observer noted that the $1,500 region offers value from a risk-reward standpoint, particularly when framed against Ethereum’s role in DeFi and layer-2 adoption.

However, several voices expressed caution. Peter Schiff warned of a potential break below $1,000, citing continued bearish momentum and technical exhaustion. A few also questioned Ethereum’s competitiveness amid rising adoption of Solana, citing its lower fees and faster settlement speed.

While the optimism from some quarters is notable, the split in sentiment reflects an uncertain market. Confidence in Ethereum’s long-term fundamentals persists, but short-term concerns weigh on price expectations.

On-Chain Metrics Signal Possible Bottom for Ethereum

Several on-chain indicators suggest Ethereum price may be nearing a local or macro bottom. The MVRV ratio—comparing market value to realized value—recently dropped below 1.0.

This indicates that the average ETH holder is now underwater, a condition historically associated with cycle lows. During past cycles, sustained MVRV readings below 1.0 have aligned with periods of accumulation and eventual price recovery.

Moreover, exchange net position change data hints at a bottom forming for ETH prices.

According to Glassnode, Ethereum has seen consistent net outflows from exchanges in April, with more ETH being withdrawn than deposited.

The pattern typically reflects accumulation, reduced sell-side pressure, or a shift toward long-term holding via self-custody. Historically, such behavior near depressed price levels often precedes recovery phases.

Meanwhile, the percent supply in profit metric dropped below 45%, signaling that the majority of ETH holders are currently in loss. This level of financial pain among holders historically aligns with market bottoms.

As such, despite the overwhelming bearish tone, these on-chain metrics collectively suggest that ETH may be close to establishing a bottom. However, confirmation will require follow-through price action and improving sentiment.

Dormancy data adds nuance to the bottoming thesis. The average coin dormancy remains low, with no significant spikes indicating long-term holders are panic-selling. This suggests that current price action is driven primarily by short-term participants and not long-term capitulation. The absence of large dormancy spikes typically signals holder conviction, which can precede accumulation phases.

Not All Technicals Are Happy!

However, not all signals align perfectly. ETH’s perpetual future funding rates, based on CryptoQuant data, remain positive despite the sharp drawdown. This indicates that long-biased traders still dominate open interest, and that the market has not fully flushed out leveraged bulls.

In previous market bottoms, funding rates often turned negative before recovery, suggesting that current sentiment may still be overly optimistic.

While several on-chain metrics support a bottoming thesis, the ETHBTC ratio paints a different picture. Ethereum’s value relative to Bitcoin has dropped to 0.0198—the lowest since 2021. The pair has remained in a steady downtrend since early 2023, confirming prolonged ETH underperformance.

No clear reversal pattern has yet emerged, suggesting that relative strength against Bitcoin is still lacking. Historically, ETHBTC reversals have coincided with ETH/USD bottoms, but the continued decline implies that Ethereum’s recovery may lag Bitcoin’s unless this ratio stabilizes.

ETHBTC’s weakness implies that Ethereum price lacks relative strength to lead a broader altcoin recovery. Price direction in the coming weeks may hinge on whether ETHBTC can form a base and whether dormancy begins to rise alongside any new accumulation trend.