Bitcoin Faces Selling Pressure but Bull Run May Not Be Over Yet

Bitcoin has had a volatile start to 2025. After reaching an all-time high of $106,000 in January, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap has dropped nearly 25%, briefly falling below $80,000. While some investors worry that the bull run is over, others argue this is just another cycle correction.

Bitcoin has historically experienced significant pullbacks before surging to new highs. Despite the recent drop, analysts note that past halving cycles suggest a price peak could still be ahead, possibly in late 2025. This cycle mirrors previous ones where Bitcoin dipped sharply before rebounding to higher levels.

ETF Investors Hold Strong Despite Selling Pressure

Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant inflows since their approval, but recent market turbulence has caused a shift. Bloomberg data shows that despite Bitcoin’s 25% drop, 95% of ETF investors have held onto their positions. The total assets under management across Bitcoin ETFs remain at $115 billion, with institutional players like Goldman Sachs maintaining exposure worth $1.5 billion.

However, ETF inflows have slowed. Since mid-February, there have been $5 billion in outflows, with $135 million leaving on March 13 alone. Only BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw net inflows that day, suggesting that while some investors are taking profits, others still see BTC as a long-term bet.

Gold Surges as Bitcoin Faces Headwinds

Bitcoin is often compared to gold, but recent market trends show a divergence. While Bitcoin has struggled under macroeconomic pressures, gold has reached a new record high of $3,000 per ounce. This shift indicates that investors are moving toward traditional safe-haven assets amid uncertainty.

US-based gold ETFs have seen inflows of over $6.48 billion year-to-date, while Bitcoin ETFs have lost $1.46 billion in the same period. The Trump administration’s aggressive trade policies, including new tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada, have fueled fears of a global economic slowdown, further pushing investors toward gold.

Bitcoin’s correlation with risk assets remains strong. Its 52-week correlation coefficient with the Nasdaq Composite Index sits at 0.76, meaning it moves more like a tech stock than a safe-haven asset like gold. This could mean more volatility ahead if macroeconomic conditions worsen.

Is the Bull Run Over, or Is This Just a Correction?

Some analysts argue that Bitcoin’s bull run is far from over. While selling pressure has intensified, market cycles suggest that Bitcoin is still in a broader uptrend. Previous halving cycles indicate that peak prices usually occur 12–18 months after the event, putting a potential Bitcoin top in late 2025.

Others, however, warn that this time could be different. Quantum computing threats, ETF outflows, and Bitcoin’s break below its long-term uptrend against gold raise concerns about whether Bitcoin can sustain another rally. If Bitcoin falls below key support levels—such as $65,000—it could signal a deeper correction.

Still, history suggests that Bitcoin tends to recover strongly after sharp sell-offs. Institutional investors continue to express interest, and Bitcoin’s role as digital gold is still a compelling narrative. Whether the crypto cycle continues its upward trajectory or enters a prolonged downturn depends on macroeconomic trends, regulatory developments, and investor sentiment.

Navigating Bitcoin’s Uncertain Path Ahead

For investors, the key takeaway is that Bitcoin remains a high-risk, high-reward asset. Selling pressure may continue in the short term, but long-term holders appear unfazed. ETF flows, gold’s rise, and macroeconomic uncertainty will all play a role in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming months.

The crypto market is no stranger to volatility, and this cycle is no different. Whether Bitcoin rebounds or sees further downside, one thing is certain: the crypto landscape is evolving, and those who adapt will be best positioned for the next big move.