New All-Time High or $110K Pullback? Bitcoin Awaits Critical CPI Report

2d ago•

bullish:

bearish:

Today’s Bitcoin price prediction is based on one macroeconomic indicator: the August 12 U.S. CPI release. BTC has been trading between $118,000 and $122,000 following a strong weekend, as traders consider whether lower inflation unlocks a new all-time high or a hot print prompts a retest of $110,000 support.

Market Mood: Hedge First, Question Later

According to derivatives desks, “a higher-than-expected CPI could dampen Fed rate-cut bets and weigh on risk assets.” ETF flow has improved since early August’s wobble, with a significant turnaround from multi-day outflows to ~$769 million of net inflows over three sessions, indicating that dip-buyers are alive. This push-and-pull explains why Bitcoin price prediction alternate between a clear breakout and a reflex selloff.

Bitcoin price Key Levels and Scenarios

Metric	Level	Why it matters
Spot range	$118k–$122k	Pre-CPI consolidation as risk appetite cools.
Resistance	$123k–$134k	Prior peak near $123,218; technicians eye $130k–$134k if momentum holds.
Support	$112k / $110k	Reclaimed support; bearish retest zone flagged by market desks.
Catalyst	CPI (July)	Surprise dictates Fed path and near-term trend.

Macro Crosswinds: CPI and Fed

Street consensus predicts a moderate monthly increase with core pressures remaining sticky, tariffs are a wild card. If CPI rises, September’s widely anticipated rate reduction may be called into doubt; if it falls, the market may shift to a “soft-patch, bigger-cut” story, resulting in volatility in either case.

Bitcoin Critical CPI Report

The probability of a September cut remains near 90%, making dips appealing for some investors, as long as inflation does not re-accelerate. The policy route is the fulcrum of every Bitcoin price projection.

Street Soundbites and Expert Views

A famous crypto trading desk put it simply: “CPI could decide whether $BTC breaks all-time high.” According to technical experts, a favorable CPI reading might prolong the August tailwind into $130k-$134k; a high print risks pushing back toward $112k-$110k. This near-term Bitcoin price estimate is consistent with the options market’s hedging tendency and the still-positive ETF demand backdrop.

Bitcoin Price Prediction

Base case: CPI near consensus keeps a September decrease in play, pushing BTC beyond $123k and toward $130k in the following weeks. Bear case: a hotter core pushes repricing of cuts; BTC falls to $112k-$110k, where ETF inflows and long-term purchasers are expected to sustain the price. This short-term Bitcoin price projection fits into a larger, still-bullish medium-term trend, depending on inflation’s glide path.

For investors and traders

Traders should specify risk around the CPI window: consider staggered entry and clearly indicated stops near $112k if fading the rise, or momentum add-ons only after a solid daily closure above historical highs. Scaling on weakness remains fair for investors as policy preference shifts toward easing; align entry with macrodata cadence rather than headlines. This systematic technique improves any Bitcoin price forecast process.

Conclusion

BTC is coiled in CPI. The base case Bitcoin price prediction is for an eventual break over $123k if inflation cooperates; else, a healthy reset into $110k support before the trend restarts. Either option preserves the cycle’s structure, with policy and flows guiding the subsequent leg.

FAQs

What time is CPI and why does it matter?
It’s the month’s key inflation check; it shapes rate-cut odds and thus liquidity for risk assets, including $BTC.

What invalidates the bullish view?
A hot core CPI that pushes the Fed away from cutting could cap rallies and push BTC toward $110k.

Is ETF flow supportive again?
Yes, flows flipped positive after early-August outflows, a constructive sign for demand.

Does options positioning matter?
Yes, hedging into CPI can amplify first-move volatility.