Clarity Act Update: Analyst Egrag Crypto Warns of a Possible XRP Price Crash – Here’s Why

In Brief:

• Senate procedural vote needs 60 votes, while revisions addressing Democratic, banking, and state concerns have not secured a certain outcome.
• EGRAG warns XRP’s six-week position below the two-week 21 EMA could trigger declines toward $1.15 and potentially the $1 support.
• Buyers must reclaim $1.48 to weaken the bearish outlook, while EGRAG’s longer-term Fibonacci projection eventually reaches $9.08 within an ascending channel structure.

 

Crypto analyst EGRAG Crypto has released a two-week XRP chart outlining a possible decline toward $1 before a broader recovery. According to his analysis, XRP’s prolonged position below the 21 EMA suggests traders may be preparing for what he terms “CLARITY Act disappointment.”

In the latest update, Senators will formally vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act at 2:15 p.m. ET during Tuesday’s scheduled Senate session. Lawmakers need 60 votes to advance H.R. 3633 toward formal debate, possible amendments, and further consideration within the upper chamber.

However, the cloture vote does not represent final passage because it only determines whether senators can consider the proposed framework. Republicans control 53 Senate seats, making Democratic or independent support necessary for the legislation to overcome the required procedural threshold.

Consequently, the outcome remains uncertain despite Republican efforts to resolve objections by releasing another revised version of the legislative text. The updated proposal contains 126 Democratic changes, including expanded ethics restrictions and stronger enforcement powers for state attorneys general nationwide.

Additionally, lawmakers introduced provisions addressing deposits moving into interest-bearing stablecoin products, which banking organizations believe could weaken traditional lending capacity.

The latest update permits the Treasury secretary to intervene if a detrimental impact on banks with less than $10 billion in assets is recorded. It grants regulators authority to oppose the stablecoin reward structure after assessing the impact. However, banks are still not convinced, interpreting the provision as “not a safeguard,” arguing that interest-like stablecoin payments should be stopped before any damage occurs.

NEW: Eight banking trade groups say the deposit flight “circuit breaker” added to the new Clarity Act text is “not a safeguard at all,” arguing it would only kick in after substantial deposit flight had already occurred.

In a letter to Senate leaders, the groups call for… pic.twitter.com/hmSHDXwfqb

— Eleanor Terrett (@EleanorTerrett) September 14, 2026

Also Read: Ripple CEO Warns Senate Against Abandoning Clarity Act Over Policy Disputes

EGRAG Sees XRP Sliding Toward $1 Before a Wider Recovery

Meanwhile, EGRAG Crypto noted that XRP has spent approximately six weeks below its 21-period exponential moving average on the watched two-week chart. The analyst explained that XRP rarely reclaims this moving average immediately, usually recording a test, rejection, retest, and directional movement.

Repeated wicks below the 21 EMA raise concerns that another rejection could push XRP toward $1.15 before reaching $1 support. XRP traded near $1.41 at the time of his analysis, making $1.15 an approximate 18% decline from that displayed market price.

Moreover, a fall toward $1 would erase nearly 29%, although EGRAG considers that level a potential accumulation opportunity for investors. His projection shows XRP forming a possible double bottom before beginning a broader recovery within its long-term ascending price channel.

Buyers must defend support and reclaim $1.48, while Fibonacci targets appear near $2.31, $3.60, $5.41, $6.90, and $9.08 over time. Therefore, the Senate vote could shape regulatory expectations, while reclaiming the two-week 21 EMA would invalidate EGRAG’s bearish projection entirely.

Also Read: Ripple CTO Emeritus Exposes Major Stablecoin Payment Design Flaw

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