Bitcoin Peak Coming in October or November, “Fragile Stabilization” Hits Crypto

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Bitcoin’s BTC $112 842 24h volatility: 0.5% Market cap: $2.25 T Vol. 24h: $40.32 B price action is entering a critical stage as analysts suggest the next major peak could arrive in October or November with the current market experiencing what many are calling a period of “fragile stabilization.”

According to Axel Adler Jr, a crypto researcher and CryptoQuant-verified analyst, Bitcoin has now passed 504 days since the last halving.

Comparing the current cycle to previous ones, Adler argued that the market is now in a mature phase of the bull regime.

504 days have passed since the last halving.

Comparing the current cycle with the two previous ones, it can be said that the market is in a mature phase of the bull regime. In this cycle, in March at a price of $70K, there was an extreme spike in Value Days Destroyed (VDD),… pic.twitter.com/lpu4Ei43ok

— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) September 9, 2025

A Sustainable Redistribution

In March, Bitcoin briefly spiked to $70,000, producing an extreme surge in the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) metric, which reflects long-term holder (LTH) spending.

Later distribution phases took place near $98,000 and $117,000, though neither matched the intensity of March.

Adler suggested that this segmented LTH selling, likely supported by institutional demand, has made the cycle’s redistribution process more sustainable.

Supply has been exiting in batches after new all-time highs, and the market has absorbed it effectively, stretching the cycle peak further out.

“Peak Flag”

Adler highlighted the importance of the so-called “Peak Flag,” which historically triggers when Bitcoin’s spot price is roughly 11 times higher than the LTH realized price.

The late-cycle signal usually appears when the market overheats relative to the long-term holder base.

Based on the current trajectory, Adler estimated that this signal could appear between October and November 2025, provided it coincides with a wave of experienced holder selling and a spike in volatility that eventually begins to fade.

Short-Term Structure Is Fragile

Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin’s short-term momentum remains fragile. Over the past week, the asset has been trading just above the short-term holder cost basis, hovering around $111,000.

Indicators showed a partial recovery as RSI climbed toward neutral territory and Spot CVD improved, but trading volumes fell, reflecting a lack of conviction.

On-chain activity remained subdued. Active addresses rose back within range, but fees and transfer volumes eased. Realized cap inflows edged higher, yet Hot Capital Share softened – highlighting modest speculative flows but fragile long-term conviction. pic.twitter.com/qgehBSQ6Eo

— glassnode (@glassnode) September 9, 2025

Futures open interest ticked higher, yet funding rates declined, showing reduced appetite for leveraged bullish bets.

Options activity also leaned defensive, with elevated skew suggesting strong demand for downside protection.

ETF Inflows Also Slowing Down

ETF net inflows are slowing and trading volumes stay muted. On-chain signals showed a modest pickup in participation as active addresses rose back within range, though transfer volumes and fees dropped.

Profitability metrics such as supply in profit, NUPL, and realized profit and loss improved slightly, but without signaling the type of euphoria usually seen near market tops.

Overall, these metrics confirm that the market is currently stable but fragile. Adler’s late-cycle framework points to a potential peak window later this year, making BTC the next crypto to explode in 2025.

Bitcoin Hyper Raises $14.6 Million in Presale

As Bitcoin aims for new highs, Bitcoin Hyper (HYPER) is making waves in its presale, already raising $14.67 million.

HYPER tackles Bitcoin’s main challenges: slow transactions, high fees, and no native smart contracts, using a smart Layer 2 solution that makes transfers faster, cheaper, and more efficient while staying on Bitcoin’s secure base layer.

Early participants can earn up to 75% APY by staking HYPER tokens, earning rewards while helping the network grow.

HYPER Tokenomics and Presale Details

HYPER, the token at the heart of the ecosystem, powers the network by covering transaction fees, staking rewards, and access to premium features. It plays an important role in the platform’s growth and development.

Right now, HYPER is available at a discounted presale price of $0.012885, giving early investors a chance to get in before the token potentially rises in value.

HYPER Presale Details: