Bitcoin fails to break $109K, but bullish setups hint at a breakout ahead
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Bitcoin bulls opened the week with a renewed push toward all-time highs, fuelled by fresh macro optimism.
However, the rally lost steam just below the $109,000 resistance band.
During today’s Asian trading session, the market saw sharp volatility as the total crypto market cap briefly surged to $3.45 trillion before retreating to $3.343 trillion by late evening.
Bullish cues from the US drove the broader upswing, keeping market sentiment firmly in “greed” territory with the crypto fear and greed index held at 73, up 7 points in the past 24 hours.
For altcoins, however, the momentum faltered, with most major tokens slipping into the red after surrendering their early-day gains.
Why did Bitcoin go up?
Bitcoin rallied to an intraday high of $109,574, less than 2% away from its all-time high of $111,814, buoyed by a wave of positive macroeconomic developments out of the United States.
Gains were fuelled by renewed risk appetite after US President Donald Trump announced a delay in the next round of tariffs until August 1.
The unexpected move offered markets a temporary reprieve from trade war escalation fears, lifting sentiment across global equities and crypto markets alike.
Adding to the bullish momentum was Trump’s signing of the so-called “One Big Beautiful Bill” on July 4.
While analysts warn the plan could add as much as $7 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, Bitcoin proponents see the ballooning deficit as a tailwind for hard assets.
The latest surge also came as Bitcoin closed last week with its highest-ever weekly candle, extending a broader uptrend that has built steadily since mid-June.
Traders say the July 7 rally was partly driven by short covering and fresh inflows from investors positioning for a breakout.
Meanwhile, political tensions in the US have added a fresh twist.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk, once seen as a close Trump ally, publicly criticised the president over the soaring national debt, which now exceeds $35 trillion and is set to grow further under the new fiscal package.
Musk warned that the current pace of borrowing could bankrupt the country, echoing broader concerns about inflation and long-term economic stability.
Further, Musk also disclosed that his newly established America Party would embrace Bitcoin.
These remarks have greatly inflated retail enthusiasm and appeared to strike a chord with crypto-leaning voter blocs who expect the “Musk effect” to help push Bitcoin to new all-time highs.
Will Bitcoin go up?
After failing to break past the $109,000 resistance, Bitcoin receded 1.24% to $108,406 at press time.
A closer look at Binance’s BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap shows a dense cluster of liquidation levels and resting sell orders between $109,000 and $110,000, creating a significant barrier for further upside.
These zones, often referred to as liquidity traps, tend to attract price action before reversing direction, as leveraged positions are forcefully closed.
This high-density liquidation band likely contributed to the pullback, with market makers and large players using the zone to offload or hedge positions.
The sharp rejection aligns with what traders call a “liquidity sweep,” where the price briefly tests resistance to trigger stops before retreating.
On the downside, Bitcoin appears to be holding above immediate support at the $108,000 mark, where the heatmap shows a moderate buildup of bid liquidity.
If this level fails to hold, the next key support lies near $106,500, followed by a stronger base around $105,000.
To regain momentum, Bitcoin would need a strong push through the $109,500–$110,000 zone, which could open the path toward retesting the $111,814 all-time high.
Until then, range-bound trading and profit-taking near resistance may continue to define short-term price action.
Expectations remain high that Bitcoin could break new ground this week, with attention now shifting to two key catalysts, Wednesday’s US trade tariff deadline and the start of “Crypto Week” in Washington.
According to Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, Bitcoin could set a new all-time high this week or next, with the rationale being post–July 4 seasonality trends, which “tend to be bullish.”
Further, he added that markets may have largely shrugged off tariff-related risks so far.
On top of that, Wednesday, July 9, marks the end of a 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs between the US and its trade partners.
Commenting on the development, analysts at UBS Global Wealth Management said that if tariffs are postponed, traders may view this as a sign of hesitation to escalate trade tensions, and such a move would boost overall risk appetite.
Among other signs, traders are also watching Bitcoin’s historical price patterns for further cues.
Pseudonymous trader Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that BTC has historically set its high or low for the month within the first 12 days more than 80% of the time.
That level is often followed by a move of 20% or more in the opposite direction.
With Bitcoin currently hovering near its monthly high, the setup is ripe for a strong continuation if resistance breaks.
Adding to bullish signals, technical indicators are also flashing breakout potential.
Notably, Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bands are tighter than they’ve been in over a year on the three-day timeframe, according to market analyst Crypto Rover, which positions the benchmark crypto for a major upside rally.
The last time this was spotted on the charts was in February 2024, Bitcoin surged 75% in just over a month, from around $42,000 to its then-record high of $74,000.
If history repeats, Rover believes a decisive breakout could propel BTC toward $190,000, even though traders remain cautious of short-term volatility.
Among other historical trends, Bitcoin’s market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio is currently at 2.23, which is comfortably above its 365-day simple moving average of 2.15, according to CryptoQuant.
Historically, Bitcoin uptrends tend to remain intact as long as the MVRV stays above that moving average, veteran analyst Burakkesmeci explained in a recent analysis.
Altcoin market recap
The total altcoin market fell 1.5% over the past 24 hours to $1.25 trillion at the time of writing.
Ethereum (ETH), the leading altcoin by market cap, declined by nearly 1% over the past day to $2,540.
Other major altcoins posted mixed results during the same period, with XRP (XRP) rising 2.5%, while Solana (SOL) and Tron (TRX) recorded more modest gains of approximately 0.5%.
In contrast, Dogecoin (DOGE) and Sui both fell by 1%, reflecting continued volatility and a lack of unified directional momentum across the altcoin sector.
Celestia (TIA), SPX6900 (SPX), and Stellar (XLM) provided the strongest resistance among the top 99 altcoins during the broader market downturn, holding modest gains of 5.1%, 4.9%, and 4.1%, respectively. See below:
Source: CoinMarketCap
Celestia: TIA’s gains today can be largely attributed to improving market sentiment following a bullish breakout from a falling wedge pattern, an early technical indicator often associated with potential trend reversals.
SPX6900: While no specific catalyst could be identified for SPX’s gains at the time of writing, the rally was likely driven by investor hype surrounding the meme coin’s strong year-to-date performance, which stands at nearly 350%.
Stellar: Though no immediate trigger was apparent for XLM’s rally, it likely followed a shift in investor sentiment driven by increased user engagement, with weekly transactions rising 11% and active addresses up 10%, according to Nansen.
Further, the total stablecoin supply on Stellar reached a record high of $667 million today, while, according to data from DefiLama, the total value locked on the Stellar network has also increased for the fifth consecutive month.
The post Bitcoin fails to break $109K, but bullish setups hint at a breakout ahead appeared first on Invezz
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