BTC or Gold? Peter Schiff Predicts Bitcoin at $65K While Gold Surpasses $3,800 Amid Crypto Market Volatility

The BTC price movement has come under the spotlight following a warning by economist Peter Schiff. An outspoken critic of cryptocurrencies, Schiff opines that crypto market volatility can send Bitcoin to $20,000 in case the NASDAQ crashes severely. Conversely, he sees gold going higher than $3,800 if financial instability grows.

Bitcoin’s NASDAQ Correlation Triggers Red Flags

Schiff predicts that if NASDAQ enters a bear market, Bitcoin will decline even more due to crypto market volatility. Investors would shift to a safe asset like gold, and this would drive the price of Bitcoin lower.

Historically, Bitcoin has followed the NASDAQ. Schiff points to past market crashes, including the 2008 financial crisis (-55%), and the COVID-19 bust (-30%), as evidence of the vulnerability of Bitcoin.

Impact on Institutional Investors and Market Stability

An extreme drop in Bitcoin prices would be liquidity issues for large holders of Bitcoin reserves, such as MicroStrategy. It would lead to widespread loss and panic in the institutional and retail investor class. 

With the NASDAQ already down 12%, Schiff estimates that a 20% drop in the index would bring BTC’s price to approximately $65K. If the NASDAQ plunges 40%, he warns that Bitcoin could fall to $20K or lower, damaging its reputation as “digital gold.”

Gold’s Strength as Bitcoin Weaken

Unlike Bitcoin, gold has shown an inverse correlation with NASDAQ. Following the top in the stock market in December of 2023, gold increased by 13% and proved itself to be a downturn hedge, according to Schiff. Gold can exceed $3,800 per ounce if crypto market volatility persists and triggers a broader market meltdown, forecasts Schiff.

He further states that a market meltdown coupled with the weakening of the U.S. dollar, would push gold prices even higher. This situation renders gold a safer investment strategy than Bitcoin, which could face increased selling pressure if there is negative market sentiment.

The NASDAQ is down 12%. If this correction turns out to be a bear market, and the correlation where a 12% decline in the NASDAQ equates to a 24% decline in Bitcoin holds, when the NASDAQ is down 20%, Bitcoin will be about $65K.

But if the NASDAQ goes into a bear market, history…

— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) March 16, 2025

In a recent tweet on platform X, Schiff asked why Bitcoin is being held in government vaults. He states that if Bitcoin’s price drops relative to gold, its secure status would be severely damaged. Critics reply that Bitcoin’s decentralization and limited supply are features that could sustain its value in periods of inflation.

Future of Bitcoin: Crash or Recovery?

The future of Bitcoin remains doubted. While Schiff’s volatility forecast for crypto markets signs a coming collapse, advocates of cryptocurrency argue that Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience in past failures.

Schiff also cautions that if Bitcoin falls 85% in value compared to gold, ETF investors will start selling their positions. This would cause liquidity problems for companies with large holdings of Bitcoin, like MicroStrategy. It would lead to further losses, and this can instill panic among institutional and retail investors.

Counterarguments: Long-Term Growth Potential

On the contrary, most experts believe that the long-term investment strategy of Bitcoin is still sound. Despite economic instability, Bitcoin is still 410% more than its position since January 2023, signaling long-term upward growth potential. They anticipate rising institutional investment, blockchain development, and mainstream usage to compensate for short-run volatility in the crypto market.

Bitcoin ETF and mass acceptance would also bring the stability required by BTC prices, even in an uneven financial environment. Despite Schiff’s warning forecasts, a lot of investors still see Bitcoin as a groundbreaking asset with high future potential.

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