Is XRP ETF Launch Imminent As Ripple CEO Lauds CME Futures Launch?

Key Insights:

• Polymarket data shows an 83% chance of Spot XRP ETF approval in 2025, up 13% in recent weeks.
• CME launched XRP futures on May 19, making XRP the fourth cryptocurrency offered after Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana.
• Bloomberg analysts predict an 85% likelihood of Spot XRP ETF approval this year, driven by CME futures and legal precedent.

The launch of XRP futures by the CME Group has sparked renewed attention toward the possibility of a Spot XRP ETF approval. As the futures went live, confidence surged among investors and analysts, with prediction platforms and financial experts now giving high odds of an ETF launch. The combination of legal developments, institutional support, and regulated futures may soon change the regulatory stance on XRP.

CME Launches Regulated XRP Futures, Drawing Institutional Focus

On May 19, the CME Group launched XRP and Micro XRP futures, making XRP the fourth cryptocurrency listed on the platform after Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. The contracts are cash-settled, so traders do not receive physical XRP. Instead, they trade based on price movements and settle in cash at contract close.

This setup allows institutions to gain exposure without holding the asset, while retail traders can speculate on price direction. Institutions often use futures for hedging and risk management.

Giovanni Vicioso, Global Head of Cryptocurrency Products at CME Group, stated that the launch shows increasing interest in the XRP Ledger and helps investors manage market risks. The contracts use the CME CF XRP-Dollar Reference Rate, updated daily at 3:00 p.m. UTC.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse called the launch an important milestone. He added that Ripple’s prime broker, Hidden Road, cleared the first block trade as trading began. The addition of XRP to CME’s offerings may strengthen its position in traditional finance.

Legal and Market Conditions Improve Outlook for Spot XRP ETF

With the futures market for XRP now regulated by the CFTC, many believe the path for a Spot XRP ETF has become clearer. According to market analyst Nate Geraci, the approval is “only a matter of time,” citing the legal foundation established in the Grayscale ruling. The ruling determined that futures and spot markets are closely related, challenging the SEC’s past decisions to deny spot ETF applications on market manipulation grounds.

The presence of a regulated XRP futures market makes it harder for the SEC to argue that the spot market is not safe for investors. Similar reasoning helped pave the way for the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs after CME listed their futures.

Several asset managers, including Grayscale, WisdomTree, CoinShares, and Franklin Templeton, have already submitted filings to the SEC for a Spot XRP ETF. Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart estimate the likelihood of approval in 2025 at 85%.

However, the ongoing legal battle between Ripple and the SEC remains a factor. Judge Analisa Torres recently denied both parties’ motion for an indicative ruling, which could delay final clarity. Legal expert Fred Rispoli said the case may continue for months, but it is unclear if this will delay ETF approval. Seyffart previously said the SEC might wait until the case ends before granting approval.

Market Optimism Grows As ETF Odds Rise Sharply

Data from prediction platform Polymarket shows that traders now place an 83% chance on an XRP ETF being approved in 2025. This figure rose by 13% in recent weeks, reflecting increased optimism among investors.

The surge is the result of CME’s futures start, Ripple’s continued legal defense and the SEC losing the dispute over Grayscale. The belief among some traders is that XRP is pushing to be treated like Bitcoin and Ethereum, as both of them currently have exchange-traded funds.

Increased institution involvement in XRP through futures and potential ETFs might result in additional liquidity for the market. Traditional investors would have the chance to invest in XRP through a Spot XRP ETF without needing to buy from a crypto exchange.

When more organizations get involved, CME’s launch may be an important event to watch. As the number of cash-settled XRP futures increases, authorities can watch trading more closely which could contribute to the call for an XRP ETF.

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