Trump Bitcoin Reserve? Kalshi Users Say There’s a 50% Chance

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On March 6, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump Donald Trump Donald Trump is an American former president politician, businessman, and media personality, who served as the 45th president of the U.S. between 2017 to 2021. Trump earned a Bachelor of science in economics from the University of Pennsylvania in 1968. Trump won the 2016 presidential election as the Republican Party nominee against Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton while losing the popular vote. As president, Trump ordered a travel ban on citizens from several Muslim-majority countries, diverted military funding toward building a wall on the U.S.–Mexico border, and implemented a family separation policy. Trump has remained a prominent figure in the Republican Party and is considered a likely candidate for the 2024 presidential election President signed an Executive Order establishing a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and a U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile. This marked a major step in integrating digital assets into the U.S. financial framework. However, the reserve currently only manages Bitcoin obtained through asset forfeitures in criminal and civil cases.

Despite its limited scope, speculation is rising around a broader Trump Bitcoin Reserves plan—one that mirrors the structure of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Kalshi Predicts 50% Chance of a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2025

According to prediction market Kalshi, there is a 50% probability that Trump will go further and establish a National Bitcoin Reserve this year. This reserve would contain Bitcoin not acquired through confiscation, and potentially include other cryptocurrencies. Importantly, the Kalshi contract requires the reserve to be fully functional and operational, not just announced in concept.

Kalshi’s data shows fluctuating sentiment:

• 57.2% probability at the start of 2025
  
• 41.2% low on January 9
  
• 70.6% peak on March 6 (following Trump’s executive order)
  

Timeline: Trump’s Bitcoin and Crypto Policy Moves

• July 2024 – Trump announces plan for a Bitcoin Reserve during campaign
  
• Nov 2024 – Wins the U.S. Presidential election; promises pro-crypto cabinet members
  
• Dec 2024 – Plans nomination of Paul S. Atkins as SEC chair
  
• Jan 2025 – Forms a crypto regulation task force via the SEC
  
• Mar 2025 – Signs Executive Order to form the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve
  

What Could a National Bitcoin Reserve Mean?

If Trump follows through with a fully operational National Bitcoin Reserve, it could signal a historic policy shift, positioning Bitcoin as a strategic, sovereign digital asset. Such a move would:

• Enhance investor trust in U.S. crypto policies
  
• Accelerate regulatory clarity and institutional adoption
  
• Signal America’s leadership in global digital finance
  

Still, the outcome hinges on execution, political alignment, and international response.