Bitcoin News: VanEck Warns Bitcoin-Buying Firms Risk Dilution as Stock Prices Sink

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin news: Bitcoin-heavy firms risk dilution if stock nears NAV.
• Semler’s market cap now mirrors its Bitcoin holdings.
• Firms should halt share sales and consider buybacks.
• Exec pay should track value growth, not BTC size.

Bitcoin news broke this week as VanEck’s digital‑asset research chief, Matthew Sigel, warned that public companies buying bitcoin through share issuances risk diluting shareholder value when their stock price approaches its Bitcoin net asset value (NAV).

Bitcoin has enjoyed a strong rally so far in 2025. On June 16, BTC traded near $106,600, pushing its market capitalization above $2.12 trillion.

Year‑to‑date gains stand at roughly 13%, and Bitcoin sits just 5% below its May all‑time high of $111,800. Despite this strength, not all bitcoin‑heavy stocks have kept pace with the cryptocurrency’s ascent.

Bitcoin News: Tech and Exchange Firms Struggle

MicroStrategy leads corporate Bitcoin holders with about 582,000 BTC, valued at approximately $64 billion. Its stock (Nasdaq: MSTR) has risen roughly 28% YTD, yet analysts debate whether its valuation reflects its core software operations or its massive bitcoin reserve.

Coinbase (Nasdaq: COIN) trades near $242 as of mid‑June but remains essentially flat for 2025 (–1.4% YTD). Ongoing regulatory scrutiny and mounting competition have curbed the crypto exchange’s share gains, underscoring a disconnect between Bitcoin’s performance and company stock prices.

Marathon Digital offers another illustration. The mining firm holds 49,179 BTC after electing to retain all June mining output.

Even so, Marathon’s shares remain volatile, rising and falling in sync with broader market swings rather than maintaining steady growth alongside bitcoin’s rally.

Semler Scientific, a biotech firm that began accumulating bitcoin in mid‑2024, now holds 3,808 BTC (about $405 million).

Its share price, however, has plunged nearly 45% this year. Semler’s market capitalization stands at $435 million—just 0.82× its bitcoin NAV—meaning investors can effectively buy the underlying BTC at a discount via the stock.

VanEck’s Sigel cited Semler’s collapse as a warning: when share price approaches NAV, issuing new shares to fund bitcoin purchases no longer adds value.

Many public companies fund bitcoin purchases through at‑the‑market (ATM) equity offerings or debt. When a stock trades at a premium to NAV, new share issuances can create value because investors pay above the underlying bitcoin stake.

But once the premium vanishes and share price nears NAV, equity issuance dilutes existing shareholders’ claims. “Issuing stock at those levels is not capital formation. It is erosion,” Sigel wrote.

Sigel’s Recommended Safeguards

To protect investors, Sigel recommended that companies:

1. Pause ATM offerings if shares trade below 95% of NAV for over ten trading days.
2. Prioritize share buybacks when bitcoin outperforms equity.
3. Explore strategic options—including mergers, spinoffs, or discontinuing the bitcoin strategy—if discounts persist.
4. Tie executive compensation to NAV growth rather than bitcoin holdings or share count, aligning management incentives with shareholder value.

This warning arrives amid a surge in institutional interest. Industry data show crypto funds attracted $1.9 billion in inflows in early June.

Dozens of public companies now hold at least 1,000 BTC, from MicroStrategy and Marathon to smaller “bitcoin treasury” outfits. VanEck’s alert underscores that piling on crypto carries structural risks beyond market volatility.

Investors should monitor each company’s share‑to‑NAV ratio closely. Planned ATM or secondary offerings signal potential dilution risk.

Buyback announcements may indicate management is acting to preserve value. Changes in executive pay structures tied to NAV growth could also reveal heightened board oversight.

VanEck’s latest Bitcoin news reminds corporate treasurers and investors alike that strategic discipline is essential when adding bitcoin to balance sheets.

Companies approaching NAV parity must curb equity issuance, prioritize buybacks or consider strategic pivots to maintain—and enhance—shareholder value.

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