Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC at $60,113 Tests Critical Support Ahead of $10.5B Options Expiry

Bitcoin trades at $60,113 as of June 26, 2026, down 2.4% over 24 hours and 3.9% on the week. Price is testing the 200-week moving average, a level that has historically marked major cycle bottoms. The 24-hour volume reads $47.3 billion against a market cap of $1.20 trillion. This analysis covers the technical structure, the derivatives setup, and the levels that define the next move.

Price structure

The trend is bearish across all major timeframes. BTC sits below its 20, 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, a full bearish alignment. The 200-week MA near $62,457 has been breached on an intraday basis, which is significant: this level held as support through the 2022-2023 cycle and its loss would mark a structural shift.

The daily RSI reads in oversold territory below 30, indicating stretched downside momentum and elevated odds of a relief bounce. However, oversold conditions have persisted through this decline without halting it, so RSI alone is not a reversal signal. The weekly structure shows a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows dating to the October 2025 peak near $126,000. Current price sits more than 50% below that high.

The $10.5 billion options expiry

The primary scheduled catalyst is today’s Bitcoin options expiry, valued at approximately $10.5 billion. The max pain level, the price at which the largest dollar value of options expires worthless, sits at $74,000.

Bitfinex analysts have noted that the $74,000 max pain figure is a distraction at current levels, given price trades far below it. The more relevant dynamic is the concentration of open interest and the potential for elevated volatility around the expiry as positions settle. Large expiries can produce sharp moves in either direction as market makers adjust hedges, so expect a wider trading range through settlement.

Derivatives and flows

Derivatives data signals stress. The prior session saw approximately $397 million in liquidations, with long positions accounting for over 80%. This is consistent with a leverage flush rather than spot-driven selling. Funding rates have compressed, indicating leveraged longs have been substantially cleared.

On the spot side, US Bitcoin ETFs are on pace for a seventh consecutive week of net redemptions. This is the dominant flow variable. Until ETF flows reverse, the structural bid remains weak regardless of intraday technicals. Counterbalancing this, corporate buyers continue accumulating: Strategy added 520 BTC and Strive 759 BTC in recent disclosures.

Levels to watch

Support: $59,000 (immediate), $55,000 (major), $50,000 (cycle). Resistance: $62,457 (200-week MA, reclaim target), $65,000, $68,000.

The operative level is the 200-week MA at $62,457. A daily close back above it neutralizes the immediate bearish breach. A confirmed close below $59,000 opens the $55,000 zone. The options expiry may drive a volatility spike that resolves the test in either direction.

Summary

Bitcoin at $60,113 is testing its 200-week moving average amid a leverage flush, a seventh week of ETF outflows, and a $10.5 billion options expiry that may amplify volatility. The technical structure is bearish, the RSI is oversold, and the flow picture remains negative until ETF redemptions reverse. The $62,457 reclaim and the $59,000 floor are the levels that define the next directional move. Corporate accumulation provides a partial offset to the ETF selling, but the structural bid stays weak until flows turn.

FAQ

What is the Bitcoin price today?

Bitcoin trades at $60,113 as of June 26, 2026, down 2.4% over 24 hours and 3.9% on the week, testing its 200-week moving average near $62,457.

What is the $10.5 billion options expiry?

Today’s Bitcoin options expiry is valued at approximately $10.5 billion with a max pain level of $74,000. Large expiries can drive elevated volatility as positions settle, though analysts note the $74,000 figure is less relevant given price trades far below it.

What are the key Bitcoin support levels?

Immediate support is $59,000, with major support at $55,000 and the cycle level at $50,000. The 200-week MA at $62,457 is the key reclaim target on the upside.

Why is Bitcoin falling?

Bitcoin is pressured by a seventh week of ETF outflows, a recent $397 million liquidation flush, a hawkish Fed, and a strong dollar. The ETF outflow trend is the dominant structural factor.

Are institutions buying Bitcoin?

Corporate buyers continue accumulating, with Strategy adding 520 BTC and Strive 759 BTC recently, partially offsetting the ETF redemptions.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile. Always do your own research.