Bitcoin Bottom Window Stays Open as EGRAG Crypto Sets $74K Invalidation Level

• EGRAG Crypto says Bitcoin remains inside historical cycle-bottom window below $74K resistance.
• Analyst identifies $47K, $43K, and $37K as major historical support zones.
• Dollar-cost averaging continues as Bitcoin awaits confirmation of macro trend direction.

Bitcoin analyst EGRAG Crypto has identified a decisive price level that he believes will determine whether Bitcoin continues following its historical bear market roadmap. According to EGRAG Crypto, the leading cryptocurrency remains inside a cycle-bottom window because it has yet to secure a two-week close above $74,000, the level he says would invalidate the current bearish structure.

The analyst shared his latest macro two-week Bitcoin chart on X, pointing to the bearish crossover between the 13-week and 33-week moving averages. According to EGRAG Crypto, this signal has consistently appeared before Bitcoin reached its final bear market low in previous market cycles.

He explained that the crossover does not mark the exact bottom. Instead, it signals the period when Bitcoin historically entered its final correction before beginning a new upward trend. Consequently, he believes the current market continues to reflect that long-term pattern.

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Historical Pattern Points to Key Fibonacci Support Levels

According to EGRAG Crypto, Bitcoin’s macro chart identifies three Fibonacci extension levels that have repeatedly coincided with previous cycle bottoms. He highlighted the first downside target near the 1.272 Fibonacci extension at approximately $47,000.

Additionally, the analyst identified the 1.414 Fibonacci extension around $43,000 as the next major support area. He also pointed to the 1.618 extension near $37,000, noting that previous Bitcoin bear markets eventually bottomed around similar levels.

Moreover, the chart compares Bitcoin’s current structure with three earlier market cycles. In each instance, the bearish crossover between the 13-week and 33-week moving averages appeared before the final market bottom formed. Those lows also developed several weeks or months after the crossover, reinforcing his expectation that the current correction may still require more time.

EGRAG Crypto also included projected timing windows that measure how long previous bottoming phases lasted. Based on those comparisons, he suggested that Bitcoin has not yet completed the historical process that marked earlier cycle lows.

Bitcoin Must Reclaim $74K to Break the Historical Structure

According to EGRAG Crypto, a two-week close above $74,000 would invalidate the historical bearish roadmap. He explained that such a move would indicate Bitcoin is behaving differently from previous cycles and could avoid revisiting the projected Fibonacci support levels. However, he maintained that the cycle-bottom window remains active while Bitcoin continues trading below that threshold. As a result, he is monitoring price action for confirmation rather than assuming the correction has already ended.

The analyst also revealed that he is continuing to accumulate Bitcoin through a dollar-cost averaging strategy. He explained that gradual accumulation allows him to build positions patiently while waiting for stronger confirmation from the broader market structure.

Bitcoin continues trading within the cycle-bottom window outlined by EGRAG Crypto, with the bearish crossover between the 13-week and 33-week moving averages remaining intact. A two-week close above $74,000 would invalidate the historical pattern. Until that happens, the Fibonacci support zones at $47,000, $43,000, and $37,000 remain the primary levels highlighted in the analyst’s macro outlook.

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