Iran-Israel conflict: Amrita Sen says oil at $100 a barrel is a possibility

A slight pullback in oil prices today after Iran’s strike on Israel is not entirely unjustified, says Amrita Sen of Energy Aspects.

What Iran-Israel conflict means for oil prices

The price action makes sense to her for two main reasons.

One, the strike was “so well telegraphed the market had already priced it in”. Second, taking profits following a geopolitical event has been a trend in recent years.

Sen made the above remarks in an interview with CNBC on Monday.

Watch here: https://www.youtube.com/embed/0m0ULHcNr0E?feature=oembed

But she does not find it a given that oil prices will sink further from here. In fact, they could very well climb back up depending on how Israel reacts, Sen added. The founder of Energy Aspects continues to see oil at $100 a barrel as a possibility.  

What oil prices may mean for the stock market

Last month, members of the Federal Open Market Committee signalled three rate cuts in 2024.

But if oil prices continue to surge on the back of Iran-Israel conflict – the central bank may have to revisit its plans of lowering interest rates this year, as per Amrita Sen.

That’s where I do think there are risks around calling for three Fed cuts because we just don’t know what the summer of energy prices could look like.

What does this mean for oil? The geopolitical premium is expected to further ⬆️. Provided there are no supply disruptions this will benefit producers, but having an oil price that’s too high may also hurt demand. Geopolitical tension without a supply disruption in general is a…

— Amena Bakr (@Amena__Bakr) April 13, 2024

Stickier inflation could be a headwind for the S&P 500 that Julian Emanuel – an Evercore ISI analyst recently said could tank to 4,750 level by the end of 2024 as Invezz reported here.  

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