XRP ETF approval chances surge to highest ever as SEC ends Ripple fight

The chances that the Securities and Exchange Commission will approve an XRP ETF this year soared to 87% on Polymarket.

That’s the highest the probability has ever been on the crypto prediction platform.

It’s also a 12-point surge from last week, signalling the growing buzz around crypto ETFs, especially with hopes for a crypto-friendly regulatory climate under US President Donald Trump.

The SEC is reviewing five XRP ETF applications. They’re among a flurry of altcoin ETF filings submitted by various funds seeking approval.

The SEC has until mid-October to decide on approval.

JPMorgan analysts predict that investors will pile up to $8 billion into XRP ETFs in their first year of trading.

The jump in the probability of an approved XRP on Polymarket comes after last week’s announcement by Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of XRP developer Ripple, that the SEC will drop its case against the company.

Garlinghouse called the decision a “resounding victory for Ripple.”

The SEC sued Ripple in 2020 for allegedly breaching US securities law in its sale of the XRP cryptocurrency to both retail and institutional investors.

Last year, a US judge ruled that XRP sold on centralised exchanges did not constitute a securities offering, but the sale of tokens to institutional investors contravened securities regulations.

Garlinghouse’s announcement spurred a temporary price surge for XRP. Meanwhile, the SEC hasn’t confirmed the news.

Agne Linge, head of growth at WeFi, an onchain bank, told DL News last week that the legal resolution was already “priced in” and would therefore not have a material impact on XRP’s price.

“Broader macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, including trade tensions and global regulatory fragmentation, continue to influence investor sentiment,” Linge said.

Still, some market observers have said XRP will rally once the legal case is over and the SEC approves ETFs for the Ripple-linked cryptocurrency.

Crypto market movers

• Bitcoin is up 3.1% over the past 24 hours to trade at $87,360.
• Ethereum is up 3.6% over the same period to about $2,077.

What we’re reading

• Gold meets crypto in new ‘looping’ trade that’s delivering 22% returns ― DL News
• AI agents: The next frontier or overhyped bots? — Milk Road
• Major Bank Regulator Removes Key Rationale for Blacklisting Crypto Industry ― Unchained
• Innovate or die: PumpSwap vs. Raydium— Milk Road
• Ripple tells SEC to ‘return to first principles’ and stop stifling crypto after XRP court win ― DL News

Osato Avan-Nomayo is our Nigeria-based DeFi correspondent. He covers DeFi and tech. Got a tip? Please contact him at osato@dlnews.com.