Bitcoin Price Hovers at $95K Amid Critical Cost Basis Analysis – Experts Predict Volatility or Breakout  

The Bitcoin price remains a focal point for investors as it stabilizes near $95,000, a threshold analysts argue could determine its short-term trajectory. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju’s latest analysis of Bitcoin’s cost basis across investor cohorts has ignited debates about potential bearish signals or long-term resilience.

Bitcoin Price & Key Cost Basis Breakdown: Why $95K is Critical For Many Investors

Ki Young Ju’s February 19 tweet highlighted critical acquisition averages:  

• ETFs/Custody Wallets: $89,000 (institutional entry point)  
• Binance Traders: $59,000 (retail-heavy cohort)  
• Mining Companies: $57,000 (historically a bear market trigger if breached)  
• Old Whales: $25,000 (untested long-term support)  

This reveals institutional investors are closest to break-even, while mining firms face heightened pressure. A drop below $57K could signal a bear market, as seen in 2018 and 2020. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor, a vocal Bitcoin advocate, doubled down on corporate adoption this week, stating, 

“Bitcoin’s scarcity and institutional demand will redefine global treasury strategies.”

Michael Saylor’s $2B BTC Purchase Plan

Adding to the bullish narrative is MicroStrategy’s CEO and long-time Bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor’s announcement that reveals a plan to raise $2 billion to buy more BTC.

Strategy Announces Proposed Private Offering of $2.0B of Convertible Senior Notes. $MSTR https://t.co/EBOMdLlgdq

— Michael Saylor (@saylor) February 18, 2025

Saylor’s Bitcoin acquisition spree is a barometer to gauge corporate confidence in BTC & cryptocurrencies. His recent announcement reinforced the narrative of Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and a cornerstone of modern financial strategy, and it further adds credence to a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve implementation.

Key BTC Price Levels To Watch

With Bitcoin price crashing below $95K and catalyzing a liquidation of $340M in 24 hours, the market seems to be flushed. Let’s look at key levels to watch from a short-term and long-term scenario. 

$BTC
Long-term
– Based on Mars-Vesta Cycle thesis, this cycle top could occur on Oct 6, 2025.
(Mars Vesta Cycle Thesis cc: @Yodaskk )

Worst-case/MaxPain scenario
– A repeat of 2021 Cycle could see $75K-$70K bottom formation (MaxPain scenario)
– Cycle peak around $120K-$150K… pic.twitter.com/PDUiZNl2fz

— MAXPAIN (@Mangyek0) February 18, 2025

Short-Term Scenarios:

Deviation Below VAL of $93.3K:

• Below the Value Area Low (VAL) of $93.3K suggests a sustained downtrend and a potential revisit of the established support level at $88.7K

Long Squeeze Target:

• As noted in a previous CoinGape article, a sweep of $86K could catalyze a long squeeze and a point of interest for short-term traders looking to play a mean reversion trade to $100K

New All-Time High (ATH):

• The $120K Bitcoin price target is a conservative estimate for a new ATH in the short term.
• The $150K-$200K target is the optimistic scenario where market sentiment drives Bitcoin prices to higher levels.

Long-Term Scenarios:

Cycle Top Based on Mars-Vesta Cycle:

• Watch Date: October 6, 2025. According to Bitcoin’s Mars-Vesta Cycle thesis, this could be the date when Bitcoin might reach its cycle top.

Worst-case/MaxPain Scenario:

• Bottom Formation: $75K-$70K. If Bitcoin were to follow a pattern similar to the 2021 cycle, this range is suggested as a potential bottom, representing a significant correction.
• Cycle Peak: $120K-$150K. This range is anticipated as the peak of the cycle in a worst-case scenario, suggesting a recovery after the bottom formation but not reaching the optimistic short-term targets.

Investors need to note that some of these levels coincide with the cost basis levels mentioned by the CEO of CryptoQuant, making them a key level to watch as Bitcoin price volatility increases.

The Bottom Line: Balancing Risk and Opportunity

While Bitcoin’s $95K cost basis tests investor resolve, long-term fundamentals remain strong. As Ki Young Ju notes, “Old whales at $25K show unshakable confidence,” while Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy continues accumulating BTC despite volatility. For traders, the $57K–$95K range is critical; for hodlers, the 2025 halving cycle and institutional tailwinds suggest upward momentum.

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