Bitcoin at a Crossroads as Nvidia Earnings Loom and ETF Flows Reverse

Bitcoin (BTC) is hovering at a critical juncture as fading spot Bitcoin ETF demand and rising macroeconomic pressure weaken market sentiment. Crypto market maker Wintermute said Wednesday that upcoming earnings from Nvidia could become the next major catalyst for both crypto and broader risk assets.

In its latest market report, Wintermute noted that Bitcoin must hold support through Nvidia’s earnings release to avoid a deeper correction toward the low $70,000 range. 

The report comes after Bitcoin fell 5.7% to around $78,000 following hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data and the first $1 billion Bitcoin ETF outflow in six weeks.

The bullish momentum that drove Bitcoin earlier this year has materially softened. Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, which peaked at approximately $1.5 billion in early May, have since collapsed and over the past two weeks saw nearly $1B outflows each week.

The macro backdrop has also shifted unfavorably. The latest US inflation data came in hotter than expected at 3.8% year-over-year, pushing 10-year Treasury yields sharply higher to 4.58% and repricing Federal Reserve expectations away from rate cuts toward a potential hike as late as December. 

Bitcoin responded with a 5.7% drop to approximately $78,000, while Ethereum shed more than 10% in the same move — largely a leverage unwind following a brief short-squeeze rally.

Technically, Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to break above the 200-day moving average near $82,000. Key support sits in the $76,000–$78,000 range.

Attention has now shifted toward Nvidia’s fiscal first-quarter earnings report, scheduled after Wednesday’s market close.

Wall Street expects the AI chipmaker to post adjusted earnings per share of $1.77 on approximately $79 billion in revenue, reflecting approximately 77% year-over-year growth.

“A hold through Nvidia earnings on Wednesday (20/05) rebuilds some confidence, but a break of $75k with funding resetting and ETF flows negative opens up the low $70s pretty quickly,” Wintermute says.

Investors are watching three key areas in Nvidia’s earnings report: second-quarter guidance, with Wall Street expecting around $87 billion in revenue, as anything weaker could signal AI infrastructure spending is starting to slow.

Markets are also looking for updates on Nvidia’s next-generation Vera Rubin AI platform, particularly around customer demand, supply chain readiness, and production capacity. 

The third focus is China, where the recent easing of US export restrictions on certain AI chips could allow Nvidia to recover some lost data center revenue after previously projecting near-zero sales from the region.

Nvidia shares recently hit an all-time closing high of $235.74 on May 14 and remain up approximately 19% year-to-date.

With spot Bitcoin ETF flows now negative and macro conditions tightening, crypto markets have become increasingly dependent on traditional risk-asset sentiment, making Nvidia's earnings an unusually direct input into Bitcoin's near-term price trajectory. A strong report and forward guidance could restore confidence across risk assets; a disappointment risks accelerating the current correction.

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