Bitcoin Tests 200-Week SMA As Ali Martinez Flags Long-Term Accumulation Zone

Bitcoin is trading below its 200-week simple moving average, putting BTC back near one of the market’s most watched long-term trend lines during the latest selloff.

Ali Martinez flagged the 200-week SMA setup, placing the long-term average near $63,500 while Bitcoin traded just below it around the $60,000 area. BTC recently traded near $60,341, with an intraday low near $58,761 and an intraday high near $60,469.

The 200-week SMA smooths nearly four years of Bitcoin price history and is widely used to track whether BTC is trading above or below its long-term cycle trend. Bitcoin has rarely spent extended periods below that line, which is why every move under it tends to draw attention from cycle traders and long-term holders.

The latest test follows Bitcoin’s renewed break below $60,000 after large wallets sold 45,074 BTC over an eight-day window. That distribution pushed BTC back into the same weak zone that has defined most of the current market drawdown.

Martinez Frames DCA Around Long-Term Support

Martinez said Bitcoin’s rare moves below the 200-week SMA have historically marked exceptional long-term accumulation opportunities. He framed the zone as the kind of market condition where a dollar-cost averaging strategy becomes relevant.

That does not make the level a guaranteed bottom. The 200-week SMA can act as a long-term reference point while price still trades below it for weeks or months. Bitcoin also remains exposed to ETF flows, large-holder selling, leveraged positioning and broader risk appetite.

The historical argument is simple: entries near or below the 200-week SMA have often appeared close to major bear-market lows rather than late-cycle tops. Public 200-week moving-average tools from Blockchain.com and other market trackers use the same long-term baseline to show when BTC trades near cycle stress levels.

Bitcoin’s current structure still lacks a clean reversal signal. Recent realized-loss data left the bottom call unresolved because losses had not reached the panic levels seen in earlier capitulation phases.

Reclaiming $63,500 Becomes The First Test

The 200-week SMA now gives traders a clear line for the next recovery attempt. A move back above the $63,500 area would put BTC above the long-term average and reduce pressure from the latest breakdown. A failure to reclaim it would keep Bitcoin trading in a zone usually associated with deep cycle stress.

The $60,000 area remains the immediate battleground. Bitcoin has repeatedly tested that level as U.S. demand weakened, with the Coinbase premium staying negative for 46 straight days while ETF demand slowed and large-holder distribution continued.

Martinez’s DCA framing is based on long-term market history, not short-term confirmation. Traders still need to separate accumulation logic from timing risk, because Bitcoin can remain below major moving averages before a durable recovery forms.

BTC traded near $60,341 while the 200-week SMA sat near $63,500. A reclaim of that moving average would strengthen the recovery setup, while continued trading below it keeps Bitcoin inside one of the rare long-term accumulation zones tracked across prior cycles.

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