Bitcoin: derivatives market still struggling

The Bitcoin derivatives market is still in slight difficulty. 

After the crash on October 10, when there was the largest forced liquidation in Bitcoin’s history, Open Interest has still not recovered. 

It is still a fairly thriving market, but it continues to be weighed down by that dramatic crash. 

Open Interest

As analyst Darkfost points out on X, the Bitcoin derivatives market has still not recovered from the event of last October 10. 

That day, in less than 24 hours, Bitcoin’s Open Interest suddenly dropped by as much as 71,000 BTC, corresponding to more than 11 billion dollars in positions forcibly liquidated or closed within a few hours.

The problem is that since then market conditions have remained difficult, and as a consequence traders now tend to be more cautious before rebuilding their exposure.

For example, as of today, total Open Interest is about 351,000 BTC, compared to almost 375,000 BTC on October 9, that is 24,000 BTC less. There has been a recovery since October 10, but it has only been partial. 

However, on Binance, Open Interest on Bitcoin is already higher than pre-liquidation levels (+7,000 BTC), while on other exchanges the recovery has not occurred. In addition, Binance’s dominance in terms of Open Interest has grown, going from 30% to more than 36%. 

In dollar terms, however, the decline is even more significant. 

In fact, if the all-time high was recorded on October 6 at 47 billion dollars, by October 11 it had fallen to just over 33 billion, and it has now plunged to 26 billion, with an annual low of 20 billion at the beginning of March. Note, however, that these data include only crypto exchanges, therefore the CME (the Chicago exchange) is excluded. 

The impact on the market

According to Darkfost, all this means that the Bitcoin derivatives market is still struggling to fully rebuild itself after the shock of October 10.

Moreover, trading activity on Bitcoin futures seems to be increasingly concentrated on Binance among crypto exchanges, suggesting that after that event investors preferred the platform that offers the deepest liquidity and the greatest market depth. 

It should be noted, however, that current Open Interest on Binance exceeds 9 billion dollars, while that on the CME exceeds 6 billion. In other words, by now the main crypto exchange in the world has Open Interest on Bitcoin comparable to that of the traditional Chicago exchange. 

However, at the time of the peak, at the beginning of October, Binance was at 15 billion, while the CME was at almost 18 billion, so the drop on the Chicago exchange was decidedly greater than that on the main crypto exchange. 

This leads one to believe that it was mainly institutional whales that pulled out of the Bitcoin derivatives market after the major liquidation event on October 10. 

The consequences

To understand the real scope of this event, it is necessary to compare the data with the period prior to the event of October 10. 

As for the CME, the all-time high reached by Open Interest was hit in December 2024 above 20 billion dollars. The 2025 low prior to the October crash was reached in April at 10 billion dollars. 

The current value of about 6 billion has recently fallen, because in mid-May it was around 9.5 billion, a level in line with the 2025 pre-crash low. 

As for Binance, instead, the all-time high was precisely that of October 6, 2025, and the current level is higher than the 2025 pre-crash low of 7.5 billion. 

Therefore, the long-term consequences of that event have in fact not been at all severe as far as the retail market is concerned, which at first shrank, but then returned to levels comparable to those of last year, mini-bubbles excluded. 

On the other hand, as far as large institutional whales are concerned, the downsizing has been greater, but without a real collapse in the medium to long term. 

It is enough to consider that in October 2024, before Donald Trump’s election victory, Open Interest on Bitcoin on the CME was almost perfectly in line with the current level, while that on Binance was significantly lower. 

This also highlights how the behavior of whales tends to be rational, even during speculative bubbles, whereas that of retail investors often remains highly emotional and driven by reasons that go beyond pure logic.