Is Uptober Still Intact or a Pipe Dream for Bitcoin?

Bitcoin retraced to one of its lowest levels two weeks ago, losing over 7% on the fifth day of that week. Recovery over the weekend gave off slight readiness by the bulls to stage further buybacks. However, the uptick was short-lived.

Last week, the apex coin lost over 5% over the last seven days, retracing lower. It opened the session at $115,089 but plummeted after a slight increase. It flipped $108k, dropping to a low of $103,530.

However, the recent downtrend is unsurprising as a previous analysis hinted at it. One piece in September explored the effects of the Fed rate cut and noted that its euphoria would fade and the asset would retrace afterwards.

The write-up noted that the asset will retrace, dropping to $110k. As of last Friday, the apex coin registered a low of $103k.

Doubling down on the bearish predictions, another outlook analyzing how prices will play out in October noted the possibility of a drop to $100k. It stated that despite September’s green close, historical price patterns indicate a strong likelihood of further retracement in the tenth month.

True to these forecasts, Bitcoin is traded almost 9% lower than it started the month. However, it rebounded and is 2% lower. As a result, questions about what may happen next rage.

Bitcoin Sees Further Pullback

Bitcoin rebounded after Friday’s dip. It gained almost 2% over the weekend and continued its uptrend on Monday, reaching $111,717.

The asset registered another significant increase on Tuesday. It opened the day at $110,580 and plummeted, dropping to $107,460. However, it recovered and surged to its highest levels since Wednesday. The charts revealed that it broke above $112k, reaching a high of $114,088.

A closer look at the 1-day chart shows that the apex coin is seeing more buying pressure, and investors are becoming increasingly optimistic about the next price action. For the first time since the first week of October, BTC is edging closer to sealing its fourth consecutive day of consistent increases.

The recent price hike seems out of place given the bearish sentiment across the market. Additionally, there were no strong fundamentals that could alter price trajectory as the apex coin was declining before the rebound.

Bitcoin no doubt saw a notable increase in capital inflow. The trend follows the massive decline in Gold’s price. The precious metal opened Tuesday at $4,355 but retraced, dropping to a low of $4,082 before rebounding. Nonetheless, the asset remains down amid attempts at buybacks.

The price correlation has been negative for a while due to investors moving funds from the crypto market into other sectors. Gold had a massive selloff a few hours ago, causing liquidity to flow back into the crypto market, and BTC is the foremost coin to attract the influx.

Price action over the last few hours offers a glimpse into how Bitcoin may perform in the coming days.

Gold. A Key Indicator

Several Bitcoin proponents all come to an agreement that Gold is a critical metric in gauging when the apex coin surge.

One such, Alex Wacy, on X, drew parallels between what happened in 2020 and what is currently taking place between both assets. He presented a chart, lining both events side by side, depicting how both assets may perform in the days ahead.

In 2020, while Gold surged, Bitcoin consolidated. However, the precious metal soon saw massive selling pressure, resulting in an extended downtrend. 

AU is currently shaping for a repeat of this event. During the sudden wave of selloffs that hit the crypto market, the precious metal saw massive increases and surged to a new all-time high. Since Bitcoin started its downward movement on Oct 6, it has lost almost 15%. Conversely, Gold gained almost 12% before the latest decline.

Trading actions on Tuesday reaffirmed the prediction that once the precious metal loses its appeal, BTC will surge. 

However, trading actions at the time of writing suggest that investors are back to stacking more Gold. The assets retraced to $4,004 in the early hours of Wednesday but saw a massive buyback following this decline. Bitcoin has since responded by slipping below $108k, but is holding on to the support. 

When Will Gold Dump?

A look at the 1-day chart shows that the bollinger bands have blared warnings about next price actions since August. AU continued upward, breaking above the upper band and trending close to it in other instances. Based on this metric, it is hard to predict its next price action.

However, the asset aligns more closely with the relative strength index. The chart reveals several instances when its price movements tallied with the signals from the indicator. For example, on Apr 22, RSI was above 70, indicating that the metal was overbought. In response, it shed off over 10% before recovery.

Similarly, AU is overbought at the time of writing. The only difference between price action in April and the current trend is that the RSI remained above 70 for an extended period. Nonetheless, price actions over the last 48 hours suggest the bulls are slowly losing their grip. Massive selloffs may follow, deeper than the previous ones.

On average, each downtrends end when the relative strength drops to 44. Currently at 56, the metric indicates further declines ahead.

Will Bitcoin Surge This October?

Gold is likely to retrace further over the next seven days. Taking note of the capital inflow into Bitcoin during previous dips, a repeat of this pattern may occur in the coming days.

Recent data from Swissblock supports assertions of a surge this October amid the bearish speculations. It noted that BTC liquidity was rising again for the first time since July, and capital is reentering the crypto market. The last time this happened, the apex coin had a major breakout. The current setup suggests that history may repeat.

However, previous price movements suggest that the apex coin may not see a massive spike as many expect. Nonetheless, recovery is almost guaranteed.

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