Are BTC and ETH Near Breakdown or Rebound? Bitcoin Tests 50W SMA as Ethereum Eyes Upside

Bitcoin price is sitting at an important area as it tests its 50-week simple moving average near $102,000.  This level has supported past market cycles. When it failed in earlier years, the market slipped into deeper declines.

Right now, Bitcoin price trades close to $101,500, down about -2.4% in the past day. Even so, it’s still down -5.8% over the week. 

Daily trading volume is near $61.7Bn, showing steady participation despite the pullback.

Traders are watching this zone closely. A clean bounce could calm the market and a drop below it could hint at more weakness ahead.

The long-term chart signals caution. Each time Bitcoin has slipped below its 50-week simple moving average (50W SMA), the market has suffered heavy losses.

Analyst Ali Martinez pointed to several examples. The market dropped about 50% in 2011, 67% in 2014, 60% in 2018, and 66% in late 2021. 

https://twitter.com/ali_charts/status/1986168894063624238

Even during the 2020 COVID shock, Bitcoin fell roughly 55% after losing this level.

With that history in mind, a clear break below $102,000 could open the way to the $40,000 area. Many traders now see that zone as a critical support for Bitcoin’s broader market structure.

Analyst Lennaert Snyder also marked $102,000 as important short-term support. 

https://twitter.com/LennaertSnyder/status/1986347850792312879

He said the four-hour chart still shows an upward trend, but warned that bulls need to take back $107,100 to keep that momentum intact.

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Ethereum Price Prediction: Could ETH Be Preparing for a New Upside Phase?

Ethereum was trading near $3,305 at press time, down -2.9% over the past day.

A weekly chart shared by the analyst shows the asset holding an important technical zone after its recent pullback. 

Price bounced close to the 50-week moving average and the 0.618 Fibonacci level near $3,130, an area viewed as solid mid-cycle support.

The chart also shows Ethereum moving inside a long-term ascending wedge, a structure that has guided its trend since 2020.

https://twitter.com/TheLongInvest/status/1986429415958474999

The chart indicates that the market may have finished its corrective Phase 2 and could be preparing for a broader move higher. 

The next major hurdle sits near $4,865, which marks the previous cycle peak. The analyst sees this level as a practical upside target.

If price continues to push higher, the move would line up with a broader wave extension. In that case, the 1.618 Fibonacci level near $8,800 comes into view as the next major upside zone.

A steady rise in support levels and a clear upward trendline back the optimistic view. 

But if Ethereum slips below $3,130, it could fall toward deeper support around $2,800. For now, momentum looks steady, even with recent swings.

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Why Did Bitmine Immersion Technologies Purchase Over 40,000 ETH?

On-chain analytics firm Lookonchain says large investors were active during the latest market dip. 

https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/1986260912412762520

Data shows eight major wallets bought a combined 394,682 ETH, valued at roughly $1.37 billion, over the past three days.

Their average entry price was about $3,462. Lookonchain pointed to one buyer linked to Aave as the biggest participant. 

This wallet picked up 257,543 ETH, worth around $896 million, making it the most aggressive accumulator during the pullback.

The second-largest buyer was Bitmine Immersion Technologies, known as Ethereum’s biggest corporate holder. The company added 40,719 ETH, worth close to $139.6 million.

OnChain Lens data shows Bitmine first bought 20,205 ETH from Coinbase and FalconX. It later received another 20,514 ETH from FalconX.

https://twitter.com/OnchainLens/status/1986248815226306624

Data from Santiment suggests short-term traders are under pressure. Those active over the past 30 days are sitting on average unrealized losses of about 12.8%.

https://twitter.com/santimentfeed/status/1986150494780211303

Longer-term traders are also slightly in the red. Santiment noted that wallets active within the past year now show an average return of –0.3%.

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