Bitcoin Price Holds Support Despite Bitcoin ETFs Outflows

Key Insights

• Bitcoin price held key support despite rising macroeconomic pressure.
• Bitcoin ETFs recorded continued outflows amid weak institutional demand.
• Long-term holders increased accumulation as traders reduced short exposure.

Bitcoin price struggled near resistance on Thursday after macroeconomic pressure weakened broader market sentiment. Traders still increased bullish positioning as long-term holders expanded accumulation and derivatives data stabilized.

Walmart’s weak outlook and rising oil prices reshaped expectations around U.S. monetary policy. That shift pressured risk assets and triggered fresh outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs. Still, on-chain data showed reduced panic selling and improving trader confidence near local support zones.

Bitcoin Price Faced Macro Pressure From Fed Concerns

CME Group FedWatch data showed traders sharply raised expectations for tighter monetary policy by Sept. 2026. Markets repriced rate hike odds after Brent crude oil remained elevated following prolonged disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz.

Walmart added to those concerns after issuing weak guidance tied to persistent consumer stress. The retailer’s finance chief, John Furner, said lower-income shoppers faced ongoing financial pressure. Markets reacted quickly because Walmart’s quarterly revenue often reflects broader U.S. consumption trends.

That reaction mirrored weakness across risk markets. Bitcoin price briefly approached a local breakout zone but lost momentum as macro fears intensified. Investors also reassessed liquidity expectations because higher borrowing costs strained government refinancing conditions.

TradingView data showed Coinbase Bitcoin pricing traded below major Tether-based exchange pairs. The discount reflected weaker institutional demand across U.S.-regulated platforms. That decline aligned with continued capital withdrawals from spot Bitcoin ETFs since mid-May.

Derivatives positioning still painted a mixed picture. CoinGlass records showed Binance traders maintained bullish exposure for several sessions while OKX participants reduced bearish bets. However, aggregate long-to-short positioning remained balanced rather than aggressively bullish.

Long-Term Holders Reduced Bitcoin Price Downside Risks

CryptoQuant data showed long-term holders controlled the largest share of circulating Bitcoin supply since early Oct. 2025. The trend suggested investors preferred holding rather than distributing coins into market strength.

Analyst CryptoZeno linked the accumulation phase to previous cycle recoveries seen during 2013, 2016, 2019, and late 2022. Earlier market tops formed after aggressive holder distribution accelerated. Current behavior instead reflected tightening liquid supply conditions.

Another bullish signal emerged from momentum indicators. Analyst Skykodelic noted the weekly relative strength index retested a historical recovery threshold after months of weakness. Previous cycles often entered expansion phases after similar setups developed.

The analyst also compared current conditions with the 2022 bear market structure. At that time, the collapse of FTX disrupted recovery attempts before momentum stabilized. Current market conditions lacked similar forced liquidations or systemic exchange failures.

Meanwhile, perpetual futures data showed improving balance between buyers and sellers. Laevitas funding metrics indicated bearish positioning faded after extreme short pressure dominated earlier in May. The adjustment suggested traders stopped aggressively betting against Bitcoin price momentum.

Miner Activity Still Reflected Defensive Positioning

CryptoQuant contributor Pelin Ay reported continued reserve declines across Binance mining pools. The movement suggested miners still transferred supply toward exchanges instead of fully resuming accumulation behavior.

Mining activity often reflects early sentiment shifts because large operators react before broader market participants. Ay said falling reserves signaled ongoing operational selling pressure despite stronger holder behavior elsewhere.

Revenue conditions also remained weak across mining firms. The Puell Multiple stayed below historical expansion levels while Miner Position Index readings avoided panic territory. That combination reflected defensive positioning rather than capitulation.

The broader market structure, therefore, remained divided. Long-term investors increased conviction while miners stayed cautious due to compressed profitability and uncertain macro conditions.

Institutional demand also lacked strong momentum. Spot Bitcoin ETFs continued bleeding capital even as derivatives traders gradually reduced bearish exposure. The disconnect showed professional investors still waited for stronger economic clarity before increasing allocation.

The bitcoin price has now approached a critical near-term phase. Bulls defended support successfully despite macro headwinds, yet broader confidence remained restrained. If derivative conditions continue stabilizing while holder accumulation expands, markets may attempt another push toward higher resistance levels during the coming sessions.

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