Bitcoin Nears $90K, But Q1 Set to Close Red as Whales Short and Doubt Grows

Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are set to close the first quarter of 2025 deep in the red. Despite a short-term rally, market analysts say there’s little hope for a bullish turnaround before the end of March.

Whale Shorts and Sell Zones Weigh on Bitcoin

Bitcoin traded near $88,000 on March 25, up nearly 14% from its local bottom of $77,500 two weeks earlier. According to Santiment, wallet addresses holding 100 to 10,000 BTC have increased, hinting at resumed whale accumulation.

But that momentum now faces resistance.

Multiple data points show BTC sellers positioned between $88,000 and $90,000. According to Alphractal, whale sentiment flipped bearish as open interest and trades above $1 million began to decline. The metric historically signals a reversal when large players switch to shorts.

“Whales have closed long positions,” said Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson, adding that historical data shows BTC tends to follow their bias.

Onchain signals also turned negative. CryptoQuant data showed 8 out of 10 metrics flashing bearish. CEO Ki Young Ju warned that the market may be entering a prolonged phase of bearish or sideways action lasting 6–12 months.

Bitcoin Needs to Hold $85K or Face Deeper Pullback

Bitcoin traded around $87,300 at press time. But onchain economist Timothy Peterson highlighted a critical range between $84,000 and $85,000, where many short-term whales hold their cost basis.

“This zone is a decision point,” wrote Crazzyblockk on CryptoQuant, warning of a potential selloff if BTC breaks below it.

Peterson remains optimistic in the long term. He shared a chart suggesting a 75% chance of new all-time highs within nine months. He also estimated a 50% probability of BTC gaining at least 50% in the short term.

Historical data supports that. April and Oct. have produced average monthly returns of 12.98% and 21.98%, respectively, over the past decade.

Ethereum Bleeds as Q1 Performance Hits 7-Year Low

While Bitcoin hovers near the $90,000 mark, Ethereum is faring worse. ETH dropped nearly 38% this quarter, marking its steepest Q1 decline since 2018, when it lost over 46%, according to CoinGlass.

At $2,059, ETH remains far below its usual Q1 performance. Since 2017, Ethereum has averaged a 78.23% gain in Q1. Bitcoin, by contrast, has returned an average of 51.62% in Q1 since 2013.

The ETH/BTC ratio now sits at 0.2348, its lowest since May 2020.

The broader crypto market followed suit. Total market capitalization dropped 11.65% since Jan. 1, now standing at $2.88 trillion, CoinMarketCap data shows.

Traders “Flying Blind” Until Mid-April, Say Analysts

Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal said a vertical swing up into the end of March looks unlikely. He added that markets may be “flying a little blind” until mid-April, when U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff strategy becomes clearer.

Crypto commentator Colin Talks Crypto predicted a “major blast-off” around April 30, but that window falls outside Q1.

Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten believes Bitcoin still has better-than-even odds of reaching new highs by June. But short term, resistance remains strong.

On March 24, Bitcoin formed an intraday high at $88,752, but failed to post a new high since. BTC must close above $90,000 to sustain momentum, according to multiple analysts.

Meanwhile, IntoTheBlock recorded $424 million in BTC outflows from exchanges over the past week. The data suggests long-term holders continue accumulating despite short-term uncertainty.