Bitcoin Ends It Best Quarter. What Does the Next Hold?

Bitcoin concludes the second quarter of 2025 with a significant price increase. Q2 ends with a significant increase, reversing the losses of the previous quarter.

The apex coin ended January with notable gains but failed to replicate that in the next two months. It ended the first three months with losses exceeding 11%, having surged to a high of $109k and retracing to a low of $76k.

News of Trump’s tariffs spread panic across the crypto market, causing massive selloffs. The selloff continued through March.

April kicked off with similar concerns, causing a massive drop to $74k. Bitcoin rebounded following the gradual drop of these levies. It marked the turning for the largest coin as it closed with gains exceeding 14%. It gained 11% in May and will end June with notable improvement.

One of the biggest events of the quarter was BTC attaining a new ATH. It peaked at $112k on May 22 after a two-day hike. It has since struggled to return to that level but failed due to further negative fundamentals.

Nonetheless, institutions continue massive accumulations with Strategy leading. It announced several buys, bringing its holdings to 5597,325. Metaplanet joins the buying frenzy, announcing a recent purchase, bringing its total bag to 13,350.

Exchange-traded funds saw strong buying during this period. Bitcoin ETF registered a net inflow of $12.7 billion, higher than Q1.

Bitcoin Heads Into the Third Quarter

Historically, Q2 is the most bullish period for the apex coin: it gains over 150% on average. It is unsurprising that it will end the session with gains exceeding 30%.

Bitcoin heads into another quarter. However, it may be different as Q3 may not be bullish. Previous records show that the asset saw its worst performance during this period. Its highest gain was in 2012 when it surged by over 82%. Conversely, it lost 68% the previous year. The coin barely moved in Q3 2024 but lost 11% in 2023. BTC gains 5% on average, the least performing quarter.

The extension of the bull market may result in the asset seeing a change in its trajectory. Previous returns suggest that the apex coin registered notable losses in Q3 after a green Q2. If this scenario plays out again, investors may prepare for significant price declines.

A closer look at the chart above shows that BTC registers three negative Q3 in a row. The trend was disrupted im 2024. It may resume in 2025, increasing the likelihood of another red quarter.

The 3-month chart supports speculations of a notable decline over the three months. Bitcoin retraces after surging above the bollinger band. It occurred several times, with the most recent instance in 2021. The most recent instance occurred in 2024 when the apex coin broke out and subsequently returned below it during the following quarter.

A repeat is imminent. BTC is trading above the highlighted indicator at the time of writing. It surged above it in Q3 2024 but slipped below the upper band the quarter. It broke out again in Q2 2025. History may repeat itself.

On the other hand, there is a slim chance of a positive Q3. Previous records indicate that Bitcoin has registered two consecutive green quarters on several occasions. It recorded slight gains in 2024 and continues the trend this year.

A Slightly Bullish Month

June ends with notable increases. However, it is the lowest-performing month of the second quarter. It registered a 2.2% increase, the third smallest in 2025.

A closer look at the monthly returns reveals why this figure is unsurprising. BTC gains an average of 7% every June. This is the lowest figure in the first six months of the year. January follows with gains exceeding 9%.

Nonetheless, fears of further tariffs were among the biggest news across the market. The 1-week chart shows that the apex coin was not off to a good start. It registered notable losses in the first week but registered doji.

BTC surged higher during the next session but failed to sustain the momentum, resulting in a doji. The asset ended the third week with losses exceeding 4% but recovered last week. 

The apex coin grappled with traders panicking over the possibility of the start of another world war. Israel and Iran started a conflict in mid-June that led to massive sell-offs

It grappled with low volatility for most of the month. The 1-day chart tells a tale of range-bound movement before a massive breakout. This is in contrast to the consistent increases it registered in May. 

Nonetheless, the monthly returns record shows that the fifth month of the year is more successful than the sixth. Bitcoin gains an average of  19% during this period. 

It is worth noting that exchange-traded funds saw notable inflows during this period. Inflow exceeded $4.50 billion in the last thirty days.

Bitcoin May See Fireworks

Bitcoin may see further increases in July. The previous week ended with less fear as the Iran-Israel conflict came to a close. The China-US trade war has ended. It would appear there are no bearish fundamentals going into the new month. 

However, investors are keeping a close eye on several events slated for this week. The EU will release its CPI, and the United States will release its jobless claims. Both events could cause further increases or declines.

Nonetheless, a downtrend may be short-lived, as the seventh month is typically a green one. BTC gains an average of 8% during this period, which is slightly better than the average gain in June. 

However, the one-day chart reveals huge chances of massive declines. The apex coin trades above the bollinger’s middle band. Its upper band lies around $110k. Traditionally, a retest of this level may result in a massive downtrend. 

A repeat of this trend increases the chance of a drop below $100k. Conversely, BTC may surge above $115k in July.

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