Blockchain.com CEO Warns: Bitcoin Set for Painful Upside Shock

Bitcoin could be setting up for a sharp rally, according to Peter Smith, founder and CEO of Blockchain.com, who argues that the market often moves in the direction that causes the most pain for investors.

In a recent interview, Smith said many traders now expect Bitcoin to fall toward the low $50,000 range. That growing consensus, he believes, increases the chances of the opposite happening.

“Bitcoin always finds the maximum pain pathway. Tell me what’s most painful for the market, that’s what Bitcoin is going to do.”

Right now, he sees two scenarios that would hurt the largest number of traders. The first would involve Bitcoin dropping far lower than most expect, possibly toward $38,000. The second and more likely outcome in his view would be a sudden rally back above $100,000.

“The most painful thing right now would be Bitcoin ripping back above $100K,” he said, noting that many traders wait for lower entry points and could miss a move higher.

Bear Market May Have Started 13 Months Ago

Smith also offered a controversial view on the broader cycle. He believes the bear market may have started more than a year ago, long before many investors realized it.

“If you remove Bitcoin and stablecoins, the crypto market cap has been nothing but down for 13 months,” he explained.

He pointed to declining trading volumes, lower web traffic across crypto platforms, and Bitcoin’s performance against gold as signs that the market has quietly cooled. Despite recent volatility, Smith estimates there is a “65% chance” that Bitcoin has already hit its low for the year.

However, he does not dismiss downside risks, but he questions whether the market will repeat past four-year cycles in the same way. As more institutional capital enters crypto, volatility has steadily compressed over the past decade.

“If we didn’t go as far up this cycle, we probably shouldn’t go as far down,” he said.

Notably, Smith also addressed the extreme pessimism seen in recent weeks, including headlines declaring crypto “dead.” For him, such sentiment often signals opportunity.

“If you’re not buying when the Fear and Greed Index is at 5, you either believe crypto is dead, or you’re missing the opportunity,” he asserted.

Nonetheless, while uncertainty around regulation and global events continues to weigh on markets, Smith believes investors should prepare for volatility, especially in a direction few expect.

And if history offers any guide, the market may once again choose the path that surprises the most people.

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