Bitcoin Halving is Over. Will Bitcoin Price Fall down?

The fourth Bitcoin halving that was expected today is completed successfully, cutting miners’ rewards in half to 3.125 bitcoins from 6.25. The value of bitcoin has been fluctuating leading up to the occasion, and dropped approximately 5% this week to be valued at around $63,880. Bitcoin halving impacts supply dynamics by halving new Bitcoin creation every four years, decreasing inflation and potentially increasing price due to scarcity and consistent or rising demand. Can the price of BTC go against the expectations of crypto enthusiasts and investors and start a downward trend?

Current Bitcoin Price Action

Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a 2.00% drop in the last 24 hours, now priced at $63,666.15. Despite this, it remains the top cryptocurrency with a market cap of $1.25 trillion. Trading volume has fallen by 36.15%, indicating a possible decrease in market activity.

Various scenarios presents opinions and views of crypto industry experts and analysts regarding the next price movement of  Bitcoin price, after Bitcoin halving 2024.

Scenario 1: Bitcoin Price Is Likely to Drop

Some industry leaders have embraced a negative outlook towards BTC price movement.

JP Morgan analysts take a cautious approach to BTC price post-halving, predicting a potential drop to $42,000 due to reduced rewards and higher production costs impacting miners’ profitability. The bank emphasizes that historically, Bitcoin production costs have influenced its prices, estimating a post-halving range of $26,500 to $53,000 before potentially falling to $42,000.

A 20% decline in the network’s hashrate post-halving may further contribute to this price decrease. Miners with lower costs and efficient rigs are likely to fare better, while publicly listed miners may increase their market share after the event. Scorpion Casino’s $SCORP pre-sale token has garnered $5 million with 10,000 participants and offers daily staking rewards.

The analysts’ sentiments were echoed by Marathon CEO Fred Thiel, who mentioned that the halving rally had already been taken into account, accelerating what would have been a rally after the halving.

On the other hand, the Head of Research Markus Thielen from 10x Research forecasted on April 13th that there might be a $5 billion miner selloff post-halving, causing a decrease in market prices.

#Bitcoin Miners Could sell $5bn of BTC post halving – #Altcoin Graveyard? https://t.co/gLRgs8yyGg pic.twitter.com/fqPmVZ7Isi

— 10x Research (@10x_Research) April 12, 2024

Meanwhile, a crypto analyst, Cold Blooded Shiller noted that, despite the optimism surrounding Bitcoin’s strength, recent trends may not align with historical patterns. Factors such as spot Bitcoin ETF approval, fundamental developments, or the broader market sentiment could contribute to Bitcoin’s current resilience.

However, the acknowledgment of potential downside risk, such as a -30% correction, raises valid concerns. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced significant pullbacks, and if it were to decline to $51,000 levels, it could reshape the market landscape.

Scenario 2: Bitcoin price is likely to Rise

Industry experts such as Venture capitalist Tim Draper predicts a substantial increase in Bitcoin’s value by 2024. They cite  investments in spot ETFs and the just completed halving event as key drivers. Draper foresees a tripling of Bitcoin’s valuation, with a potential reach of $250,000 by th end of the year.

The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US has attracted new interest, providing a simpler investment option for those wary of direct ownership. Bitcoin’s capped supply and growing acceptance as a payment method make it more attractive than fiat currencies facing inflation. Draper sees women’s adoption of Bitcoin as a catalyst for its value surpassing $250,000.

By leveraging Bitcoin ETFs, investors can diversify their portfolios without straying from traditional fund management, integrating Bitcoin’s potential growth into their investment strategy. Bitcoin’s role is emphasized as a safeguard against inflationary pressures and governmental fiscal policies, noting a shift in trust towards Bitcoin over traditional currencies.

The experts’ positive outlook on Bitcoin’s future value highlights the importance of widening its user base and increasing demand in driving market growth.

With @CNBC @WebSummit . Here is why @bitcoin will reach $250k. https://t.co/DqARhl8pAu

— Tim Draper (@TimDraper) December 16, 2022

On the other hand, a popular crypto trader and analyst Rekt Capital asserts that Bitcoin price might rise, but not immediately after halving. He claims that BTC typically peaks in its bull market around 518-546 days after the Halving. The next peak may occur in mid-September or mid-October 2025 if history repeats itself.

However, Bitcoin is currently showing signs of acceleration, reaching new all time highs around 260 days earlier than expected. Despite this, a Pre-Halving Retrace has been slowing down the cycle by 30 days so far. This could potentially cut the typical cycle length in half.

Another perspective suggests that a Bull Market peak may occur 266-315 days after breaking an old all-time high, potentially placing the next peak in December 2024 or February 2025. Both perspectives should be considered as Bitcoin’s cycle progresses, with the cycle being influenced by retracements and consolidations. The timing of the bull market peak may be pushed further into the future if these slowdowns continue.

Conclusion

The fourth Bitcoin halving has led to various predictions about where Bitcoin’s price is headed next. Although some experts predict a possible decrease in BTC value after the halving event, attributing it to lower rewards and higher production costs affecting miners’ profits, others, such as Venture capitalist Tim Draper, are optimistic about substantial growth potential fueled by spot ETFs and positive sentiment around the halving. While Bitcoin advances, its price changes are influenced by different factors like market sentiments, regulations, and investor actions. Despite short-term changes, Bitcoin’s long-lasting importance in the world of cryptocurrency is evident through its resilience and market dominance.

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