Will Dogecoin Hold $0.168 Support Or Trigger A Brutal 30% Selloff?

Dogecoin drew the market’s attention earlier today, with a large transfer of 200 million DOGE, valued at over $35 million, to the OKX exchange.

The movement came from a single unidentified wallet, raising speculation about a potential selloff by a major holder.

This development, combined with ongoing price patterns and market metrics, is now putting strong focus on a key support level  $0.168. A breakdown below this level may result in a steep 30% drop in the price.

Large DOGE Movement Sparks Selloff Concerns

A transfer of 200 million DOGE, valued at approximately $35.9 million, was made from an unknown wallet to the OKX exchange.

This transaction caused concern in the market, as such large movements are often linked to potential sell-offs by major holders. The sudden increase in supply could pressure the DOGE if buying demand does not match the inflow.

This activity corresponds with a sharp rise in the Age Consumed metric, indicating that older DOGE tokens are being moved after a long period of dormancy.

Historically, this has been associated with profit-taking behavior from long-term holders, especially before market corrections. This has led many traders to anticipate increased volatility.

At the time of writing, the DOGE/USD price is $0.1760, trading just above the key support at $0.168. A close below this level may trigger a breakdown from the symmetrical triangle pattern.

Technical Chart Shows Critical Symmetrical Triangle

Dogecoin (DOGE/USD) is showing a symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart, with price compressing between lower highs and higher lows.

DOGE is trading around $0.175, sitting just above key support at the 0.786 Fibonacci level ($0.1769).

According to Ali chart On X, Dogecoin must hold above $0.168 to avoid a 30% price drop, as a breakdown below this support could open the path toward $0.1284 and even lower Fibonacci extension levels.

If DOGE fails to hold above $0.168, the next support levels are $0.155 and $0.1284, followed by Fibonacci extensions at $0.0934 and $0.0787. This would confirm a bearish breakdown, especially if accompanied by rising volume.

However, a rebound from current levels could keep price inside the triangle. A breakout above $0.2056 may trigger a rally toward $0.2386 and $0.2739.

Traders are watching the DOGE closely as a decisive move near the triangle apex appears imminent.

Dogecoin Price Trading Volume and Derivatives Show Mixed Signals

Spot market activity shows reduced volume, with 24-hour trading volume for DOGE falling by more than 44% to around $1.92 billion.

This suggests less active interest and confirms the current consolidation trend, which often comes before a breakout.

In the derivatives market, open interest has also dipped slightly by 0.74%, showing cautious behavior from futures traders.

However, the options market has experienced increased activity. Options volume rose by over 91%, and open interest climbed nearly 2%, signaling that traders are preparing for a strong price movement in either direction.

At the same time, long/short data reveals mixed sentiment. The global long/short ratio stands at 0.9395, indicating a tilt toward short positions.

But top traders on Binance and OKX show a stronger long bias. This divergence may show that retail traders are more bearish, while larger accounts remain hopeful about price holding above $0.168.

DOGE Holders Monitor $0.168 As Key Level

At the time of writing, Dogecoin (DOGE/USD) was trading at $0.1760 which is lower than the 20-period SMA of $0.17899 which is bearish pressure in the short term.

The price is ranging between $0.1685 and $0.1894 indicating low volatility and the consolidation of prices.

This are the same as the overall symmetrical triangle looked on the daily chart which strengthens the possibility of a breakout or break down.

The Bollinger bands are converging implying volatility is getting squeezed. The lower band, at the moment, constitutes the critical support that DOGE is close to at the price of 0.1685.

Any further loss will drag the price to somewhere between the quotation of $0.155 and 0.145.

However, in case the support resists, it is possible to expect the movement to the midline and upper band with targets of $0.179 and $0.1894 respectively.

Currently, the MACD is in position of early bullish crossover but still below zero line. It is a sign of poor momentum.

Any rally projection must be accompanied by a corresponding volume increase. In case of DOGE breaking the resistance of 0.189, then one can consider an upside of 0.200-0.215.

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