XRP’s $2 Dream Now Runs Through a Crowded $1.31 Floor

XRP is trying to turn a sharp pullback into a launchpad. After climbing 71.8% from $0.988 to $1.698, the token has given back about 20% and is sitting on a densely traded support band that analyst Ali Charts says will decide whether $2 is still in play.

The setup is straightforward: buyers built a heavy base just above $1.30, U.S. spot XRP ETFs kept adding during the dip, and the short-term chart is coiling. None of that guarantees a breakout. It does explain why $1.31 to $1.38 has become the line traders are watching.

On-chain cost-basis data is the core of the call. Ali’s earlier URPD map flagged about 3.2 billion XRP changing hands between $1.35 and $1.38. The new thread widens that pocket: more than 4.8 billion XRP were previously acquired between $1.31 and $1.38.

That is a large cluster of holders who are closer to breakeven than to a windfall. If that band holds, it can absorb the correction. If it fails, the same coins that look like demand can flip into overhead supply on the way back up.

Overhead is not empty either. Ali Martinez maps the next liquidity shelves at $1.60 (1.99 billion XRP), $1.68 (1.98 billion) and $1.86 (3.47 billion). A clean break above $1.86, he argues, would open a run toward $2.19, where another 3.12 billion XRP were previously traded. In other words, $2 is not the first wall. It sits behind a thicker one at $1.86.

The fundamental overlay is institutional. U.S. spot XRP ETFs took in roughly $105 million last week, equal to about 73.2 million XRP during the week of August 24. That is meaningful dip-buying on a regulated wrapper, and it arrived while the token was still correcting.

Ali's careful on the lag. ETF demand has not yet translated into lasting price strength. That gap matters in the current tape: fund flows can stay green while spot still respects resistance, especially when Bitcoin is fading the $80,000 area and risk appetite is uneven.

Technically, the near-term trigger is tighter than the $2 headline. On the hourly chart, XRP looks to be forming a bullish flag and testing its support. Ali’s confirmation level is an hourly close above $1.38. That would treat the flag as resolved and put $2 back on the table.

Until that close prints, the market is still defending the base rather than attacking the range high. A slide through $1.31 would weaken the whole recovery case and force the $2 conversation onto the back burner.

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