Brent Hits $113 as South Pars Burns and Analysts Say $200 Oil Is Coming

The oil price forecast for 2026 shifted overnight. Brent crude price today stands at $113.88, up over 10% in two sessions, after the South Pars attack sent oil prices surging, with Israel striking the field without US approval. Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex was hit by missiles with fires confirmed, and Abu Dhabi’s Habshan gas facilities were struck and shut down. Middle East oil exports collapsed from 26.1 million barrels per day in February to just 7.5 million today. This is what a Middle East oil crisis looks like when it stops being a warning and starts being a supply shock.

QatarEnergy Statement on Missile Attacks on Ras Laffan Industrial City

QatarEnergy confirms that Ras Laffan Industrial City this evening has been the subject of missile attacks.

Emergency response teams were deployed immediately to contain the resulting fires, as extensive…

— QatarEnergy (@qatarenergy) March 18, 2026

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Qatar’s Ras Laffan and Abu Dhabi Both Hit as IRGC Threatens Saudi Aramco

Three Countries Struck in One Night

QatarEnergy stated:

“Ras Laffan Industrial City this evening has been the subject of missile attacks. Emergency response teams were deployed immediately to contain the resulting fires, as extensive damage has been caused. All personnel have been accounted for and no casualties have been reported at this time.”

Abu Dhabi authorities confirmed that missiles hit and shut down the Habshan and Bab field gas facilities. The IRGC declared Saudi Aramco refineries, UAE oil terminals, and Qatar’s LNG complex “direct and legitimate targets,” urging evacuation “within the coming hours.”

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Trump on the South Pars Strike

US President Trump posted on Truth Social:

“Israel, out of anger for what has taken place in the Middle East, has violently lashed out at a major facility known as South Pars Gas Field in Iran. The United States knew nothing about this particular attack. NO MORE ATTACKS WILL BE MADE BY ISRAEL pertaining to this extremely important and valuable South Pars Field unless Iran unwisely decides to attack a very innocent, in this case, Qatar.”

The Numbers Behind the Oil Price Surge in 2026

The IEA estimates 10 million bpd shut in. Iraq cut 2.9 million, Saudi Arabia up to 2.5 million, UAE 1.5 million, Kuwait 1.3 million. A market forecast in 3.7 million bpd surplus is now in deep deficit. The oil price forecast for 2026 looked nothing like this a month ago.

Onyx Capital Group CEO Greg Newman told CNBC:

“We’re very much in the $150 range but I don’t think it’s ridiculous at all to suggest $200. It would be very fair given we are basically having a crisis-a-day right now equivalent to supply outages. I wouldn’t be surprised if oil went to 200 bucks, or even 250, because commodity prices go parabolic when there’s a shortage of supply.”

The South Pars attack sent oil markets into their sharpest two-session rally in years.

Phillip Nova senior market analyst Priyanka Sachdeva said:

“Escalation in the Middle East, precise attacks on oil infrastructure, and the death of Iranian leadership all point to a prolonged disruption in oil supplies.”

Brent crude price today reflects a Middle East oil crisis with no clear exit. The oil price surge in 2026 is being driven by real physical shortages. Even a ceasefire tomorrow would not fix it. Shut-in production takes months to restore, and the oil price forecast for 2026 will stay dark until it does.

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