Bitcoin Has 72% of Coins in Profit, What About Upward Momentum? 

Bitcoin made a meaningful recovery in September, but the rally has now stalled, according to on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr.

Bitcoin’s supply in profit stood at 72% on September 29, while a momentum indicator fell to zero with BTC trading near $83,000.

As Bitcoin’s price rose, the share of supply held in profit increased from 65% to 73.8%, its highest level since January 20. This indicates that a significant amount of Bitcoin that had previously been held at a loss returned to profit during the September rally.

However, the improvement faded slightly toward the end of the month. By September 29, the supply-in-profit figure had fallen to around 72%, Adler Jr. wrote.

Bitcoin’s long-term average is around 76%. That puts the current level above the September low but still below its historical average. In the historical context cited by Adler, supply-in-profit levels can reach around 92%.

Despite BTC holding near $83,000, both the fast and slow lines of the Bitcoin Impulse Performance indicator fell to zero on September 29–30.

The rally has paused, but zero momentum alone does not confirm a downward reversal, Adler noted.

“What matters now is which direction the indicator moves from zero,” Adler Jr. said. A move below zero would indicate negative price momentum.

A similar shift occurred in late May and early June, when Bitcoin fell from around $77,000 to $63,000 and the indicator dropped to nearly -96. If negative momentum is accompanied by a decline in the share of coins in profit, some of the Bitcoin supply that returned to profitability in September could move back into loss.

The key question is whether Bitcoin momentum turns positive again or moves below zero. A sustained decline in momentum alongside a drop in the share of coins in profit would indicate that September’s recovery is losing strength.

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