Bitcoin Will Either Rally to $140K or Drop After $110K Bounce

Bitcoin‘s turning point in November 2025 is the institutional flows and macroeconomic factors which forced it to fall below $100,000 from $126,000 in October. Market professionals have two different expectations from Bitcoin in the next few months. The first one predicts that prices will be $130,000-$140,000 in 3 months to 6 months. The second is the possibility of a final rally to $100,000-$110,000 and a long reversal. The current market structure and the historical cycle patterns need to be interpreted regarding these rivaling structures.

The Bull Case – Institutional Momentum and Macro Tailwinds

The first scenario is based on structural developments that were not present in previous Bitcoin cycles. Over the past year, Bitcoin ETFs have created a consistent institutional demand that withstands selling pressure. Major financial institutions, such as Harvard University, have significantly expanded their Bitcoin holdings through BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF. This institutional infrastructure provides a distinct market dynamic than retail dominated cycles of the past.

Technical analysis also demonstrates a lack of confidence. Bitcoin has been able to recover from corrections, as there is availability of volume patterns and on-chain analytics signals. Trading volumes are advancing around significant support levels, particularly 100,000. The Fear and Greed Index analysts believe this creates a classic accumulation situation for institutions poised for the next stage. Cyclical trends indicate that Bitcoin bull runs 18–24 months after halving. The last halving occurred in April 2024, causing a cycle peak in late 2025 to early 2026.

The Bear Case – Distribution Pressure and Cycle Maturation

The second scenario presents a more intense narrative based on realistic market mechanics. Bitcoin has already had a significant amount of revenue from the long-term holders since July 2025, which has seen around $43 billion sales from this group of holders. Recent whale transaction data indicates that there was an 87% drop in volume in the weeks between October and November, indicating either largeholders were relocating or transferring holdings to cold storage.

This distribution cycle mirrors those seen in 2013, 2017, and 2021, characterized by rapid price surges followed by extended corrections. CryptoQuant’s Bull Bear Market Cycle Indicator has signaled a potential macro trend reversal when the Profit Loss Index hits peak exuberance levels, subsequently leading to prolonged bearish pressure. Stocks have decreased significantly in the past 30 days despite increasing volumes, indicating a decrease rather than accumulation. According to the bear narrative, sellers could dominate the demand during this rebound after testing $100,000 to $110,000 one last time, causing a decrease in demand.

Market Structure and What Late 2025 Means

Bitcoin in late 2025 is a turning point. Both scenarios assert that institutional vehicles, corporate treasury acceptance, and spot ETF infrastructure have transformed the Bitcoin market. There is a strong resistance of the prolonged rebound near $109.683 at 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. Breaking up here with volume would provide the bear thesis and a failure would provide the bull argument.

The resolution is likely to be dependent on broader macro factors that are outside the crypto market, such as interest rate trends, and geopolitical events. The outcome depends on whether the expected regulatory benefits under the Trump administration translate into actual bitcoin purchasing policies.

Conclusion

Bitcoin investors should be prepared for both scenarios, as late 2025 could become a significant event for the market. It may either confirm Bitcoin’s shift into a mainstream asset or test whether retail and institutional convictions can endure a further correction cycle. Instead of betting on a single outcome, prudent market participants should maintain a close eye on institutional flows. They should also monitor the behavior of large individuals, which often leads to an early indication of which scenario is likely to unfold.