XLM Faces Final Capitulation as Analyst Sees Path to $1.80

What to Know

• EGRAG says XLM may face one final capitulation before recovery.
• Analyst identifies $0.12 to $0.10 as critical support zone.
• Long-term market structure continues supporting EGRAG’s $1.80 XLM target.

Crypto analyst EGRAG Crypto has warned that Stellar (XLM) may not have reached its ultimate cycle bottom despite the token’s recent decline. In a recent post on X, the analyst pointed to a recurring historical structure that suggests XLM could experience one final capitulation event before beginning a move toward his long-term $1.80 target.

According to EGRAG, XLM’s two-week close below the 100 EMA at $0.18 signaled a high probability move toward the $0.12 to $0.10 macro support zone. The analyst stated that the market is now approaching a critical stage where either a final liquidity hunt unfolds or bullish momentum begins to return.

He explained that losing the $0.18 level increased the chances of a deeper correction. However, EGRAG stressed that such a move would fit within the broader market structure rather than invalidate it. Instead, he believes a decline into lower support levels could mark the final phase of the current correction.

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EGRAG Identifies Key Support Zone for Potential Reversal

According to the chart shared by the analyst, the $0.12 to $0.10 region represents a major macro support zone. EGRAG noted that previous Stellar market cycles experienced similar capitulation phases before transitioning into strong upward trends. The chart compares the current correction with earlier downturns that lasted between 350 and 469 days. Meanwhile, the ongoing cycle has already extended for roughly 420 days, placing it within the range of previous market bottoms.

As a result, EGRAG believes the market may be approaching what he described as the “moment of truth” for XLM. He argued that many investors could panic if prices revisit the lower support zone. Nevertheless, he views such a scenario as a potential accumulation opportunity rather than a sign of long-term weakness. The analyst also outlined a bullish alternative, stating that a sustained recovery above the $0.18 level would reduce the probability of a final liquidity hunt. In that case, bullish momentum could return sooner and support a broader market recovery.

Despite warning about additional downside risk, EGRAG maintained a positive long-term outlook. He stated that the overall structure still points toward a non-logarithmic target of $1.80 once the correction phase is complete. XLM remains caught between a possible final capitulation and a bullish recovery. The market’s reaction around the $0.18 level will likely determine whether Stellar first revisits macro support or begins the next expansion phase toward his $1.80 target.

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