German CPI: disinflation stalls at 2.2%, while talk of further inflation accelerates

Today, official German inflation statistics from site Destatis, which gave estimates for April 2024, were published.

According to Destatis, the inflation rate (CPI) in Germany is expected to have been 2.2% in April.

An unchanged inflation data set

This means that inflation remains essentially unchanged from 2.2% a year earlier, and a marginal 0.5% higher than the previous month.

It is also the first time in more than a quarter (four months) that the inflation rate in Germany has not fallen. And is in stark contrast to last month’s inflation figures, which showed Germany’s CPI at its lowest reading in two years.

Implications for the EU economy and rate cuts

This may spark concerns that European inflation may be stickier than previously thought, deferring hopes of an imminent rate cut.

However, it may also put to rest fears of German disinflation, after the EU’s largest economy experienced falling inflation figures for four consecutive months for the first few months of 2024.

More inflation to come next month?

Today’s Destatis report adds that:

Based on the results available so far, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that consumer prices are expected to increase by 0.5% on March 2024. The inflation rate excluding food and energy, often referred to as core inflation, is expected to be +3.0%.”

This may (or may not) be a typo meaning to refer to CPI increasing by half a percent in May, rather than March, 2024.

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