Solana and Litecoin ETF approval odds are very high, says Bloomberg analyst Balchunas
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The likelihood of approval for spot Solana and Litecoin ETFs in the United States has jumped to an impressive 90% this year, according to Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas.
This bullish forecast marks a significant evolution in the SEC’s approach following its landmark green light for spot Bitcoin ETFs earlier in 2024.
Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have pointed out that both Solana and Litecoin meet the regulatory and market criteria that previously opened the door for Bitcoin-based products.
Their analysis suggests that these two digital assets, despite representing very different technical philosophies, have equally strong cases for institutional-grade investment vehicles.
Solana, known for its high-throughput blockchain architecture designed to power decentralised applications at scale, has rapidly become a core component of many DeFi and NFT ecosystems.
Litecoin, often dubbed the “silver to Bitcoin’s gold,” boasts a decade-long track record of reliable performance and network stability that regulators have found comforting.
The SEC’s apparent readiness to approve regulated products tracking these assets signals a broader interpretive shift toward treating prominent cryptocurrencies as commodities.
Solana, Litecoin ETFS approval in October?
Bloomberg’s data shows that spot Solana ETFs face a decisive approval deadline of October 10, while spot Litecoin ETFs confront an October 2 deadline.
Beyond these single-asset vehicles, analysts also assign a 90% chance to ETFs tied to diversified crypto baskets or indexes that would aggregate multiple digital assets in one fund.
That basket-ETF deadline arrives as early as July, reflecting the SEC’s appetite for instruments that promote market integrity through clear composition and transparent valuation methods.
Meanwhile, the odds for spot XRP ETFs, pegged at 85%, remain slightly lower owing to Ripple’s ongoing legal and regulatory complexities.
XRP proponents have welcomed recent court decisions clarifying that certain secondary market transactions do not constitute securities offerings.
However, Franklin Templeton’s highly anticipated spot XRP ETF application was pushed back from its original May third date to June seventeenth, invoking fresh speculation on regulatory timelines.
This delay coincided with a mild XRP price correction, causing the token to dip 3% and trade around $2.20.
That pullback occurred amidst a broader downturn in the global crypto market, which saw total capitalisation slip 0.4% to roughly $2.96 trillion.
Dogecoin, classified along with Litecoin, Solana, XRP, Cardano, Polkadot, and Avalanche as a commodity in SEC filings, carries an 80% approval probability.
These figures underline how even legacy meme coins with unconventional origins can gain traction in a maturing regulatory landscape.
For institutional investors, ETFs represent an attractive gateway into digital assets via traditional brokerage platforms without the complexities of direct custody or private key management.
The transition from unregulated token holdings to formally registered investment products could precipitate a substantial inflow of institutional capital.
Analysts warn, however, that approval is only one hurdle: issuers must also demonstrate robust custody solutions, reliable valuations, and comprehensive investor protections.
The SEC’s stringent review process scrutinises the mechanisms by which fund providers will safeguard against market manipulation, ensure accurate pricing, and facilitate redeemability.
In recent months, issuers have beefed up compliance frameworks and enlisted established custodians to meet those elevated standards.
This operational readiness likely factors heavily into Bloomberg’s optimistic odds, signaling that the market has adapted to regulatory expectations.
Should the SEC adhere to the projected decision dates, investors will gain unprecedented access to Solana and Litecoin through exchange-traded products by October of this year.
Such availability could dramatically broaden the retail and institutional investor base, unlocking fresh liquidity and potentially catalysing price appreciation.
Enhanced legitimacy is another key benefit, as SEC-approved ETFs carry a regulatory imprimatur that can alleviate lingering concerns about market integrity and counterparty risk.
ETF approval may also spur derivative market development, enabling options and futures tied directly to Solana and Litecoin ETFs.
This expanded derivatives ecosystem could further stabilise prices by fostering advanced hedging strategies and deeper liquidity pools.
Nonetheless, market volatility remains a persistent caveat, and the prices of underlying tokens may continue to swing even after ETF launches.
Competing issuers will likely vie for market share, prompting fee compression and product differentiation in areas such as lending integrations or active index methodologies.
What does this mean for investors?
For casual investors, a diverse suite of single-asset and basket ETFs could simplify exposure decisions, allowing them to choose between specialised or broad-spectrum strategies.
The prospect of widely available Solana and Litecoin ETFs also raises questions about the future of spot Ethereum products, which remain pending but have seen a surge in supportive commentary.
Regulatory clarity issued through these decisions could set precedents for how other smart-contract–focused tokens are treated under US securities laws.
As July and October approach, market participants will watch SEC filings, court rulings, and public statements for signals that confirm or challenge the consensus odds.
Until then, Bloomberg’s 90% probability serves as a powerful indicator of shifting regulatory winds favouring established crypto assets.
Whether Solana and Litecoin can maintain their technical integrity and community support under the scrutiny of massive capital inflows remains an open and compelling question for investors at all levels.
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