Crypto markets brace for impact as Bitcoin and ETH options worth $10B near-expiry

After experiencing significant volatility this week, crypto traders are closely monitoring the upcoming Bitcoin and Ethereum options expirations scheduled for Friday, June 28. A total of $6.6 billion in Bitcoin options and $3.5 billion in Ethereum options are set to expire this week, with both assets approaching their respective max pain points. 

Looking at the data for Bitcoin options, $6.6 billion worth expires with a bullish signal indicated by a put/call ratio of 0.47. Deribit data shows current Open Interest at $108,239.60, comprising 71,651.40 call options and 36,588.20 put options. Bitcoin’s max pain point currently stands at $57,000. Earlier this week, Bitcoin dipped to $58,000 before rebounding above $61,000, edging towards this pain point.

Bitcoin market reactions and signals

Ethereum options worth $3.54 billion expire with a put/call ratio of 0.58. Open Interest totals 1,049,020.00, with 662,453.00 call options and 386,567.00 put options. Ethereum’s max pain point is $3,100, contrasting with its current price of $3,382, reflecting a 4.7% decline on the weekly chart.

Max pain points represent levels where most options become worthless as expiry nears, influencing market movements. Investors and traders closely monitor whether BTC and ETH prices will converge towards these levels.

In developments, Bitcoin shows signs of forming a bottom after a 15% correction from its peak, with reduced leverage evident as open interest and funding rates decline ahead of the options expiry, per CryptoQuant. Attention is also being paid to upcoming US economic data and macro trends.

Also Read: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs rebound with $14.4 million inflows; Fidelity’s FBTC leads surge

Meanwhile, Ethereum investors await the launch of spot Ethereum ETFs, which is expected next week. VanEck is preparing for the launch and announcing zero trading fees until late 2025.

Notably, a substantial $886 million in open interest lies at the $100,000 strike price for Bitcoin options, indicating a potentially large number of traders betting on a significant price increase. The total notional value of all outstanding Bitcoin options contracts currently stands at a staggering $19 billion.

Spot ETH ETF launch

The recent approval of a spot-based Ether ETF by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in May was initially seen as a bullish catalyst for the crypto market. In anticipation, ETH prices surged by 20%. However, the SEC’s approval only pertained to the 19b-4 filing, delaying the actual launch of the ETF for trading.

This delay appears to have cast a shadow of uncertainty on the market. Since the news, both Bitcoin and Ether have struggled to break through key resistance levels, with ETH remaining below $4,000 and Bitcoin hovering beneath the $70,000 barrier. As the options expiry coincides with this ongoing correction, the coming hours could increase volatility in the crypto market.

Also Read: Hong Kong financial sector eyes DeFi and Metaverse, despite regulatory challenges

The launch of spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could potentially lead to a 30% drop in Ether’s price, warns Andrew Kang, founder and partner at Mechanism Capital. Kang suggests that Ether’s price could plummet from its current value of $3,410 to as low as $2,400. In a recent post, Kang expressed his skepticism about the potential benefits of an Ether ETF. He stated:

How much upside would an ETH ETF Provide? I would argue not much […] predicting a price range of $2,400 to $3,000 post-ETF launch.

Andrew Kang

Kang anticipates that spot Ether ETFs will attract only 15% of the flows that spot Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) ETFs have seen. This aligns with the 10–20% range that Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart estimated.

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Cryptopolitan Reporting by Florence Muchai