Top 6 Bitcoin Price Pullbacks from the Bear Market Analysed

The crypto community awaits with excitement for the upcoming Bitcoin halving scheduled in two days, on April 20, 2024. Investors are closely watching the price fluctuations of BTC amid the current cryptocurrency market crash. Rekt Capital, a well-known crypto trader and analyst, recently posted on X about the notable pullbacks that BTC has undergone since the bear market in November 2022. Let’s explore these retracements and what they mean for investors.

Understanding Bitcoin Pullbacks

Since the November 2022 Bear Market Bottom, Bitcoin has encountered several notable pullbacks:

1. -23% in February 2023

This period of decline lasted for 21 days and witnessed a 23% decrease in Bitcoin’s price, indicating a phase of market adjustment and instability. US regulators caused a the drop in Bitcoin price mid-month, following attacks on the crypto industry. Gary Gensler’s SEC crackdown on Kraken Exchange and Paxos sent shockwaves, but Asian markets, especially in Hong Kong, showed bullish sentiment, leading to a recovery from the dramatic drop.

2. 21% in April/May 2023

Lasting for a significant 63 days, this pullback saw a 21% decline in Bitcoin’s price. The extended duration may have tested investors’ resolve and market sentiment. The price decline was caused by a huge sell order and high UK inflation figures. The sell order at Binance caused Bitcoin to drop more than 3% below $30,000, with further declines to $29,000. Over $25 million in bitcoin futures were liquidated, with long positions making up 98% of the total. Analysts believe it was a leverage washout, with severe effects seen in ETH as well.

3. 22% in July/September 2023

Another prolonged pullback lasting 63 days occurred in the summer of 2023, with a similar magnitude of decline (-22%). This period likely reflected ongoing market uncertainty and external factors affecting Bitcoin’s price. Multiple reasons contributed to Bitcoin’s price decrease such as long-term investors cashing out profits , the impact of geopolitical tensions on market sentiment, and and concerns over a possible government sale of Silk Road-related Bitcoin.

4. 21% in January 2023

The decline in the BTC price can be attributed to traders locking in profits after the coin rallied over 150% earlier in the year. This results into large liquidations of bullish bets, reducing market leverage. The market also saw a downward trend due to an increase in open interest and positive funding rates in perpetual swaps signaling bullish leverage. Additionally, the market was anticipating US inflation data and the Fed’s final policy meeting of 2023 which could impact aggressive bets on rate cuts. This contributed to investors cautious sentiment towards Bitcoin and the overall crypto market.

5. 18% in March 2023

A shorter but significant pullback lasting only 7 days, where Bitcoin experienced an 18% decline. This period might have been characterized by heightened volatility and investor caution. The price fell due to a hawkish Federal Reserve, the collapse of crypto-friendly Silvergate Bank.

6. Current Pullback

The ongoing pullback, the sixth major retrace since the 2022 bear marketbBottom, has seen Bitcoin’s price drop by almost 16% over 8 days. This decline, although longer, is shallower compared to the March 2023 retrace. The current pullback due to continued market weakness attributed to tax season and geopolitical risks, as well as liquidations of leveraged positions in the crypto market.

Key Observations and Implications

1. Retracement Depth

Most of the pullbacks experienced since the bear market bottom have hovered around the -20% retracement depth, with one notable exception at -18%. This consistency indicates a repeated trend in BTC price fluctuations.

2.Duration

While certain retracements have been brief, others have lasted for weeks or even months. The different time lengths emphasize the volatile characteristics of the cryptocurrency market.

3. Current Support

Rekt Capital warns that if Bitcoin fails to hold the ~$60,000 area as support, the ongoing pullback could potentially deepen and extend further, possibly equaling or surpassing the lows of the March 2023 pullback.

Current Bitcoin Price Action

Bitcoin has experienced a drop in its value by 3.39% over the past day to trade today at $61,248.20. The decline has become even more noticeable in the last seven days, with a 13.51% decrease.

Bitcoin still maintains its position as the largest cryptocurrency, boasting a market capitalization of $1.2 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap. However, the coin has experienced an increased market activity with an increase of 7.85% in trading volume over the past 24 hours, to reach $42.3 billion

These numbers indicate a downward trend for BTC in the past few days, which could indicate ongoing market volatility in the short-term.

Conclusion

Since the 2022 Bear Market, Bitcoin has experienced significant pullbacks, posing challenges and opportunities for investors throughout its journey. In order to manage risks and take advantage of opportunities in the changing crypto environment, it is essential for investors to remain well-informed, be careful, and keep an eye on important support levels while navigating the fluctuations of the cryptocurrency.

 

 

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