Arthur Hayes Believes Crypto Will Soar Once the Treasury Hits 850 Billion

Key Highlights

• Treasury balance surge could spark crypto’s next breakout
• Arthur Hayes says $850B marks the liquidity turning point
• Billions may flow back into markets fueling Bitcoin rally

Treasury Balance Nears $850 Billion as Crypto Awaits Turning Point

Crypto markets are closely watching the U.S. Treasury’s General Account (TGA) after it surged past $850 billion this month, a level BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes calls a trigger for renewed growth.

Hayes argues that once the Treasury completes its cash buildup, liquidity will begin to return to risk assets, setting the stage for a new crypto rally.

Why the Treasury Balance Matters for Crypto

The TGA is the Treasury’s main operating account at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It holds proceeds from bond sales and tax revenues, and its size directly affects liquidity across financial markets.

According to MacroMicro data, as of September 18, the balance stood at $816.4 billion. Just three days earlier, however, it had already crossed the $850 billion threshold — setting a record high for 2025.

Hayes believes this “cushion” target signals the end of liquidity drain. “Growth can only resume once the liquidity outflow is complete,” he explained.

Liquidity Shifts and the Path Ahead

Since mid-July 2025, the Treasury has aggressively added to its balance, often draining liquidity from risk markets like crypto. But once the account stabilizes at its target level, Hayes expects capital to flow back into assets such as Bitcoin and altcoins.

On July 1, 2025, the U.S. Senate passed the “Big Beautiful Bill,” raising the debt ceiling by $5 trillion. This enabled the Treasury to issue more bonds and replenish the TGA, accelerating its buildup.

If Hayes is right, the Treasury’s milestone could soon unlock a fresh wave of liquidity for investors. With the balance near its target, crypto markets are bracing for what could be the next major upswing.