Ethereum breakout signs line up as price recovers closer to the $2,800 level

Ethereum (ETH) is showing signs of recovery after recently moving close to the $2,800 level. The biggest signal is the accumulation of open interest on derivative markets. 

ETH recovered to $2,775.82 during the general crypto breakout over the weekend. Trading volumes reached $21.9B, close to the higher range for the past month. ETH has been breaking to new ranges in Q3, with 74.6% in quarterly gains to date. 

Historically, Q3 has been a strong period for ETH. In 2026, the asset is expected to close the period with significant gains, after two quarters in the red. 

In September, ETH is up by around 11%, following the more significant expansion in August. In the past month, ETH sentiment also switched from fear to greed, rising to 70 points to reflect the recent rally. 

As Cryptopolitan reported earlier, the ETH expansion was seen as a factor for driving the next altcoin and token season. The rise in ETH indeed coincided with a revival of the crypto market, as selected tokens outperformed BTC. 

ETH open interest recovers on Binance

One of the major drivers behind the ETH expansion is the accumulation of open interest on derivative markets. In the past quarter, ETH derivative trading gradually returned, following a period of stagnation. 

Open interest on all exchanges rose as high as $16B for all exchanges, based on Cryptoquant data. Of that total, $6.8B in positions were held on Binance. The Binance spike in derivative trading is also among the main drivers of the ETH recovery. 

The open interest on Binance has returned to levels not seen since January, and growth has been almost vertical in the past few weeks. ETH is also among the leaders in open interest expansion, though traders are growing their positions for BTC, SOL and other assets. 

Binance is also an outlier in terms of positioning. The exchange carries the biggest share of shorting attempts, with a dominance of nearly 50% in short positions. Short positions are available all the way up to the $2,800 range, but show no potential for a short squeeze to a higher price. 

Short positions may also increase market volatility, as the price expansion causes forced liquidations. Despite this, derivative markets also indicate a return to risk-taking, as traders quickly rebuilt the liquidated positions even after significant liquidation events. 

The market resilience and lack of capitulation events show ETH may be on the path to a more lasting recovery, with improved sentiment. Despite this, traders remain cautious for the price attempting to sweep long positions,concentrated in the $2,600-$2,700 range as of September 22.

ETH shows signs of spot accumulation

Beyond derivative trading, ETH buyers are also showing signs of conviction. Recently, Bitmine renewed its treasury buying, already holding 4.9% of the supply. 

On-chain data shows large buyers are taking up the available liquid supply of ETH, in addition to Bitmine’s purchases. Recently, a Hyperliquid whale sold 1,107 BTC over the course of days, switching to spot ETH buying, then staking the tokens. 

While the Ethereum network is more inflationary, producing over 20K ETH per week, the available ETH on exchanges is declining, a sign of increased spot interest. Around 14.8M ETH is available on exchanges, of which only 3.8M ETH is on Binance. 

Most of the recent spot buying comes from whales or institutions, placing large orders during market dips. Crypto ETFs also saw their biggest inflows since the October 2025 crash. Both spot and derivative markets show traders try to grab price momentum, though still remaining strategic and cautious.

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