Commodity wrap: Oil slips on UAE OPEC exit; gold at 3-week low

Gold slumped to a three-week low on Tuesday as energy prices climbed due to stalled negotiations between the US and Iran. 

Meanwhile, crude oil rose sharply as the Strait of Hormuz remained shut, thereby affecting the free flow of shipments.

However, oil prices trimmed some gains as the United Arab Emirates announced that it will leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries from May 1. 

Investors are assessing the demand outlook for industrial metals, which has been dampened by the Middle East conflict, as copper extended its decline for a third consecutive day. 

US officials are currently reviewing Iran's latest proposal, but the White House reiterated its non-negotiable "red lines," such as preventing Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, leading to a dip in copper futures.

At the time of writing, the three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange was at $13,036 per ton, down 1.4%. 

Oil surges; UAE leaves OPEC

Oil prices climbed over 3% on Tuesday due to Middle East supplies being restricted because the Strait of Hormuz remained mostly closed amid stalled efforts to conclude the Iran war. 

However, gains in oil were reduced somewhat following the UAE's announcement that it would exit both OPEC and OPEC+.

The United Arab Emirates announced its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ on Tuesday, an action that significantly weakened the oil-exporting groups, particularly impacting their key leader, Saudi Arabia. 

“Losing a member with 4.8 million barrels per day of capacity, and the ambition to produce more, takes a real tool out of the group's hands,” Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said in an emailed commentary. 

“With demand nearing a peak, the calculation for producers with low-cost barrels is changing fast, and waiting your turn inside a quota system starts to look like leaving money on the table.”

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the latest proposal from Iran to end the war, according to an official on Monday. 

The conflict remains deadlocked due to Trump's rejection of the offer.

In response, Iran has closed the Strait, which handles roughly 20% of the world's oil and gas supplies, while the US maintains its blockade of Iranian ports.

The Brent crude contract was last at $111.16 per barrel, up 2.6%. It had risen to $112.70 earlier in the day. 

Gold slips

Gold prices dropped to their lowest point in over three weeks on Tuesday. 

This decline occurred as markets assessed inflation and interest-rate worries, anticipating several upcoming central bank decisions.

The price movement followed a rise in oil prices, which came after US–Iran talks stalled.

The gold price is experiencing a continued decline due to the latest failure in negotiations between Iran and the United States. 

The drop follows US President Trump's apparent rejection of a proposal from the Iranian leadership concerning the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The market, which had recently begun to anticipate the US Federal Reserve might cut interest rates later this year, is now leaning towards the expectation that rates will remain unchanged.

“If the increase in oil prices continues, market participants could even start pricing in an interest rate hike again, as they did in mid‑March,” Thu Lan Nguyen, head of FX and commodity research at Commerzbank AG, said in a report. 

“In that case, the gold price could, as it did then, fall back towards USD 4,500 per troy ounce.”

Gold prices on COMEX fell to $4,567.75 an ounce, down 2.4% from the previous close. Silver on COMEX slipped 3.3% to $72.535 per ounce. 

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