Dogecoin Price Prediction: 5 Billion New DOGE Would Fall to 500 Million, What Matters Now

A proposal has been sitting on GitHub for weeks that would touch the monetary policy of Dogecoin for the first time in eleven years: the reward per block would fall from 10,000 to 1,000 DOGE. That would cut annual new issuance from around 5.3 billion to around 526 million coins, and the inflation rate from about 3.4 percent to about 0.3 percent. None of it has been decided. For any price forecast it is still the most important open question, because it concerns the supply side rather than sentiment.

DOGE traded at $0.093058, or 0.081779 euros, on September 28, 2026 at 06:43 UTC (source: CoinGecko, own retrieval). That is 3.87 percent below the level of 24 hours earlier, 5.75 percent above the level of seven days ago and 9.65 percent above the level of 30 days ago. Market capitalisation stands at $14.53 billion, turnover over the past 24 hours at $1.02 billion.

Proposal 3776: What Would Change in Dogecoin's Monetary Policy

The proposal is filed as issue 3776 in the official Dogecoin repository. It would lower the block reward from 10,000 DOGE to 1,000 DOGE, a cut of 90 percent. The authors argue for a more conservative issuance model that better protects the long-term value of the network.

The block reward is the quantity of new coins a miner receives for finding a block. With Dogecoin it has been fixed since 2015: 10,000 DOGE per block, with no halving and no cap on total supply. That is precisely what separates Dogecoin from Bitcoin, where the reward halves every four years.

One point matters for context: an issue on GitHub is a contribution to a debate, not a decision. A change on this scale needs the agreement of the core developers, a new release of the reference software and adoption by the mining pools. The developers themselves have pointed out that such a step, after eleven years of fixed monetary policy, would be a long process with an open outcome. Anyone who books the proposal into a forecast as a settled matter is working with a number that does not yet exist.

10,000 DOGE Per Block: How the 3.4 Percent Inflation Rate Arises

The arithmetic behind it is open to inspection, and you can redo it at any time. Dogecoin targets one block per minute, which gives 1,440 blocks a day. At 10,000 DOGE per block that creates 14.4 million new coins daily and around 5.26 billion a year.

Market capitalisation and price together imply a circulating supply of about 156.1 billion DOGE ($14.53 billion divided by $0.093058, own calculation, as of September 28, 2026, 06:43 UTC). The 5.26 billion new coins therefore amount to roughly 3.4 percent of the existing stock per year. External assessments of the proposal cite 3.2 to 3.3 percent; the spread comes from different cut-off dates and is left here as a range rather than smoothed away.

At 1,000 DOGE per block it would be 1.44 million coins daily, around 526 million a year and therefore about 0.34 percent of today's stock. For a sense of scale: that would sit below the issuance rate of Bitcoin after the 2024 halving.

The decisive point for the forecast is the monetary value of that quantity. At the current price, new DOGE worth around $1.34 million reaches the market every day. That supply has to be absorbed continuously for the price merely to hold. How this pressure compares with the inflows into exchange-traded products is something we worked through on September 26, 2026 in a separate analysis of new issuance and ETF inflows.

Why Miners Are the Biggest Resistance to the Issuance Cut

Dogecoin is mined through merged mining alongside Litecoin. Merged mining means that the same computational work secures blocks in two networks at once, without any additional electricity. For many Litecoin miners the DOGE reward is therefore an extra return that helps carry the power bill.

If that extra return falls by 90 percent, the calculation shifts. Critics of the proposal warn that part of the hash rate could move away and that the cost of attacking the network would fall with it. Supporters counter that a scarcer supply would support the price, so the return measured in dollars would not fall to the same degree. That counter-argument, however, assumes the price actually rises, and that is the assumption still waiting to be demonstrated.

Dogecoin Price at $0.0931: The Levels Between $0.0800 and $0.1004

Three levels can be evidenced from the daily closes of the past 30 days (CoinGecko, own retrieval on September 28, 2026):

• $0.1004, the high of September 23, 2026 and at the same time the round 10-cent mark. September's move rebounded off it.
• $0.0927, the low of September 24, 2026. The current price sits just above it, so this area is carrying the short-term structure for now.
• $0.0800, the low of September 16, 2026 and the lowest daily close of the month. Below it the 30-day data offer no evidenced support line at all.

There are 25 percent between the monthly low and the monthly high. That range is the realistic frame for short-term expectations as long as no new trigger appears. The issuance proposal would be such a trigger, but it only takes effect from the day it is actually written into code.

Bitwise Is Closing the Dogecoin ETF BWOW on October 14

On September 10, 2026, Bitwise Investment Advisers announced in a mandatory filing to the US Securities and Exchange Commission that it will wind up the Bitwise Dogecoin ETF (NYSE Arca: BWOW). The schedule is fixed: the last trading day is Wednesday, October 14, 2026. Creation of new shares ends before the open on October 15. On Thursday, October 22, 2026, remaining shareholders receive the net asset value of their shares as of October 21 in cash. The product launched on November 26, 2025 and will therefore not reach ten months.

For investors in Germany the direct exposure is small, because a US fund of this construction rarely sits in a retail portfolio there. The wind-up is nevertheless a signal about the product market: an issuer is pulling a meme-coin product after less than a year because the assets gathered do not cover the running costs. What that means for the European ETP landscape is set out in our assessment of the BWOW closure.

One point from it matters for any tax planning and applies to European products too: when an issuer winds up a certificate or a fund, a sale is forced. The timing of that sale is not yours, and a running holding period breaks.

Grayscale Versus Bitwise: The ETF Inflows in September 2026

In the week of September 21 to 25, 2026, Dogecoin ETFs together recorded net inflows of $2.89 million, the highest weekly figure since this product class launched in November 2025. The Grayscale Dogecoin Trust alone took in $3.48 million over that period. The difference between the two numbers is not an arithmetic error; it shows that money flowed out of other DOGE products in the same period.

Set those figures against the issuance side and the ratio becomes clear. $2.89 million spread across five trading days is around $578,000 of inflow per day. Against that stand new coins worth around $1.34 million daily. Supply from mining is therefore about 2.3 times as large as the strongest demand from the funds measured so far (own calculation from the figures cited above).

This is exactly where the proposal matters. At 1,000 DOGE per block, daily issuance would fall to a value of around $134,000. The same inflows would then exceed new supply by more than a factor of four. Whether inflows stay at this level is open: measured against the billions in the Bitcoin funds, single-digit millions are an early start and not evidence of broad institutional demand.

Holding Period Under Section 23 EStG: What the Year End Means for Your DOGE Gains

Under the German Federal Ministry of Finance circular of March 6, 2025, crypto assets count as other economic goods within the meaning of section 23 paragraph 1 sentence 1 number 2 of the German Income Tax Act. Two rules follow that shape your return more than most price moves of any single week.

First, the holding period: if more than one year lies between acquisition and sale, the gain is tax-free in private assets. The circular confirms this explicitly even where the coins were used for staking or lending in the meantime. Sell within those twelve months and the gain is taxed at your personal income tax rate.

Second, the exemption limit of 1,000 euros per calendar year, in force since 2024. An exemption limit is not an allowance: if your gains from private disposal transactions come to 999 euros, everything stays tax-free. At 1,001 euros the entire amount becomes taxable, not just the euro above the line.

That is where the deadline comes in. For the 2026 tax year, what counts is what has actually been sold or swapped by December 31, 2026. Swapping DOGE for another cryptocurrency or for a stablecoin is a sale, even if no euro lands in your bank account. Anyone wanting to offset this year's losses against gains from private disposal transactions has to realise both in the same calendar year. Which tools keep acquisition dates on a clean FIFO basis is shown in our comparison of crypto tax tools and portfolio trackers.

Buying Route Under MiCA: How to Identify a Licensed Trading Platform

The European regulation on markets in crypto-assets has applied in full since December 30, 2024. Anyone offering crypto services commercially in the EU needs authorisation as a crypto-asset service provider. In Germany, BaFin grants and supervises that authorisation.

You can establish this without specialist knowledge. A platform's imprint or legal notices state which supervisory authority granted which permission. BaFin maintains publicly accessible registers of supervised firms, and ESMA keeps a European register as well as a warning list of unauthorised providers. A provider that makes no such statement does not belong on a shortlist, however cheap the fees look. An overview of trading venues sorted by cost and authorisation is in our comparison of the best crypto exchanges.

Custody, Spread and Network Fee: The Costs Per DOGE Transaction

At a price of just over nine cents a coin, percentage costs weigh more heavily than with expensive coins, because many investors work with large unit counts and small amounts. Three cost blocks are worth keeping apart.

The spread is the difference between the buy and the sell price, and it is the item most often overlooked. With providers that quote no explicit order fee, the margin sits precisely there. A spread of one percent costs ten euros on a 1,000-euro order, regardless of whether the interface talks about commission-free trading.

The network fee arises as soon as you move DOGE from the trading platform to an address of your own. That fee has historically been low on the Dogecoin network, but many platforms add a flat surcharge well above the actual network cost. This flat rate appears in the platform's fee schedule, not in the order window.

The third block is custody. If the coins sit on the trading platform, you carry that firm's default risk. A wallet of your own shifts that risk onto the safekeeping of your keys. For holdings meant to stay put beyond the twelve-month period, that argues for a hardware solution; the devices and their differences are set out in our hardware wallet comparison. In either case keep your own record of acquisition dates, because in case of doubt it is you, not the platform, who has to evidence the holding period to the tax office.

Bull Case and Bear Case for Dogecoin Through the End of 2026

Both sides can be argued from the figures in this text, and neither of them is a prediction.

In the bull case, the issuance proposal gains backing among the core developers. Even a serious debate about a 90 percent cut changes the expectation of future dilution, and expectations work on markets before implementation. If inflows into the funds continue on top of that, the zone around the September high at $0.1004 is the first target against which this narrative has to be measured.

In the bear case, the proposal peters out like earlier attempts because the mining pools withhold their consent. Then it stays at 14.4 million new coins a day against single-digit millions of inflows per week, and the pressure on the price remains structural. The lowest daily close of the past 30 days at $0.0800 is in that case the level at which it becomes clear whether September's move holds.

Both scenarios hang on the supply side and on decisions that can be evidenced, not on announcements on social networks. The recent 3.87 percent decline within 24 hours shows how quickly sentiment turns while neither question is settled.

Dogecoin Price Prediction: How to Proceed Now

1. Gather your acquisition data. Pull the purchase date and the cost basis for every DOGE position. Only then can you see which part of your holdings reaches the twelve-month mark before December 31, 2026 and which does not. The tools for it are in the comparison of crypto tax tools.
2. Evidence your trading platform's authorisation. Look in the imprint for the permission under the European crypto-asset regulation and match it against the supervisor's register. If you find nothing there, compare the alternatives in the overview of the best crypto exchanges.
3. Match custody to your holding horizon. Holdings meant to stay put for more than twelve months do not belong permanently on a trading platform. Which devices are suitable and what they cost is set out in the hardware wallet comparison.

(As of September 28, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)