Where bettors see Bitcoin’s price after the halving

13d ago•

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The odds for fresh all-time highs for Bitcoin in April are falling fast.

Punters on blockchain-based betting site Polymarket now put the odds of Bitcoin surging beyond $73,700 by month’s end at just 14%.

That’s down more than 66% from April 8 when bettors were riding high on the back of optimism from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund demand and the upcoming halving.

A shifting mood in cryptocurrency and other markets has taken hold.

Investor sentiment shifted last week, Caroline Bowler, CEO of crypto exchange BTC Markets, told DL News. She pointed to gains in the US dollar that reflection this caution. The dollar tends to be a haven during risk-off periods.

Significance of the halving

The halving is a pre-ordained event that will slash miner rewards for maintaining the Bitcoin blockchain in half.

For most miners, it means their revenues will go down while their operating costs remain the same — turning some of them into prime acquisition targets by big players.

One narrative has suggested that the halving will send Bitcoin to a new record, an argument backed up by historical data and skyrocketing demand for the cryptocurrency on the back of the launch of 10 spot Bitcoin ETFs in January.

However, bettors and other market watchers are starting to reject that narrative.

While the significance of the Bitcoin halving is exaggerated by some market watchers, recent Bitcoin rallies “are much more than a fad,” Greg Beard, CEO of Stronghold Digital Mining, told DL News. “Bitcoin is maturing with institutional adoption.”

Beard suggested that Bitcoin’s price will rise substantially over the next two years.

Weighing Bitcoin down

Concerns over the Federal Reserve’s possible decision to push interest rates out to the end of the year, as well as the conflict between Iran and Israel, are weighing heavily on risk assets like Bitcoin.

Bitcoin dropped to a seven-week low following Iran’s decision to attack Israel over the weekend, which saw the asset dip to $62,700 from $67,200 shortly after Iran’s aerial assault over the weekend.

A separate Polymarket bet suggests that there is a 68% chance that Bitcoin will trade above $60,000 by the end of the month.

To be sure, sentiment for Bitcoin in the months ahead could change swiftly should inflation fall faster than expected, prompting the Fed to begin cutting rates sooner.