Bitcoin Halving Price Prediction: Can BTC Keep Outperforming Traditional Assets Post Halving?

Bitcoin halving price prediction: The crypto market screams of instability ahead of the anticipated Bitcoin halving event. According to most blockchain calculators, including CoinGecko’s, the third cycle of halving will occur in slightly over two days, on April 20.

What Is Bitcoin Halving?

The creator of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto, while aiming to control BTC’s maximum supply and ensure its scarcity as a digital asset, added to the code a trigger that halves miner rewards every 210,000 blocks, or approximately every four years.

With the current block height at #839,638, the network is very close to the event expected at block height 840,000. During this cycle, the rewards miners receive for securing the network and processing transactions by solving complex mathematical equations will reduce to 3.125 from the current 6.25 BTC.

Although investors look forward to Bitcoin price moving up immediately after halving due to the buzz around the event, the actual impact of the event could be delayed by several months, based on historical market movements.

By reducing miner rewards, the supply of new BTC joining the circulating supply will go down from 900 to 450 BTC.

On the other hand, an increase in demand for Bitcoin among retail and institutional investors would underscore the significance of the halving, with supply and demand dynamics potentially driving prices into a parabolic rally.

Bitcoin's fourth mining-reward halving is just two days away. The quadrennial event will reduce BTC's per block emission to 3.125 BTC from 6.25 BTC. Though bulls were in the driver's seat following each of the three halvings, the magnitude and the time taken to reach the eventual… pic.twitter.com/DIHJs8kdMn

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) April 17, 2024

Historically, Bitcoin price has surged to achieve a new all-time high several months after the halving. The same is expected to repeat, especially with the spot ETF introducing fresh demand for BTC unlike in previous cycles.

The adoption of the ETF in the US bolstered Bitcoin price to a new all-time high of $73,803 in March. Although the total daily net outflows have frequently characterized the last few weeks, experts believe demand will rally again post-halving as investors anticipate the bull run.

According to crypto reporter Wu Blockchain, who cited data from SoSoValue, Bitcoin ETFs posted a total daily net outflow of $58.03 million.

According to SoSoValue, the total net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs yesterday was $58.03 million. The Grayscale ETF GBTC had a net outflow of $79.38 million in a single day, with GBTC's historical net outflow currently standing at $16.46 billion. The Bitcoin spot ETF with the… pic.twitter.com/Z4JxdJ99BM

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) April 17, 2024

Grayscale’s GBTC still records the highest net outflow volume with $79.38 million on April 16. Ark Invest was also in the negative at $12.88 million while BlackRock’s IBIT ETF closed in the green at $25.78 million.

Bitcoin Halving Price Prediction As $62,000 Support Holds

Bitcoin price has tested support highlighted in the range between $61,000 and $62,000 at least four times since February. If respected again, this level might trigger a buy-the-dip scenario with investors moving at speed to seek exposure before halving.

However, the technical outlook from the perspective of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is majorly bearish, signaling another breakdown this week. The RSI although neutral at 39, has failed to break above the trendline resistance, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to the sellers’ whims.

Should the downtrend persist, BTC price might drop to sweep through liquidity at $60,000, and if push comes to shove seek support at $58,000 or $56,000 levels before a new trend reversal begins.

Bitcoin’s position below the bull market indicators — the 20-day EMA, the 50-day EMA, and the 200-day, EMA adds credence to the bearish structure.

With an upturn above $63,830 — the previous day’s open, the path of least resistance may shift upwards buoyed by the halving hype for a breakout towards $70,000.

Despite the correction last weekend and this week, blockchain analytics firm Glassnode said via a post on X that Bitcoin outperformed traditional asset allocations from April 2019 to March 2024.

The perfect diversifier? From April 2019 – March 2024, adding a small crypto allocation to a traditional 60/40 portfolio notably boosted returns: a 3% allocation yielded 52.9% returns, & a 5% allocation brought 67.0%, far surpassing the traditional strategy’s 33.3% returns. pic.twitter.com/pC6XcEzLe6

— glassnode (@glassnode) April 16, 2024

Companies that allocated as low as 3% of their balance sheet to Bitcoin increased their yields by 52.9% while a 5% allocation achieved a 67% yield, thus significantly outpacing traditional asset strategies which grew returns by 33.3%.

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