What Are the Odds of Federal Reserve Rate Cuts in June Amid US-Iran War and Ceasefire
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- Ceasefire eased oil below $95, raising odds for earlier Fed rate cuts.
- Mixed US data show modest GDP growth and a resilient labor market.
- Crypto markets sharply reacted, led by Ethereum and Bitcoin liquidations.
The odds of Federal Reserve rate cuts in June are in flux after the recent US-Iran ceasefire. Analysts, including Mohamed A. El-Erian, note that markets are closely watching US economic data, including PCE inflation, GDP, and jobless claims, to gauge monetary policy direction.
While the PCE index remains the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, attention has shifted to upcoming CPI data for March, as it reflects more recent price movements. Consensus expects core monthly inflation to rise slightly to 0.4% and annual core inflation to ease to 3.0%.
Headline inflation is forecast at 0.4% monthly and 2.8% annually. These numbers will strongly influence mark…
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