Bitcoin, ETF holders tether hope to Uptober 2026 to return into gains after 10/10 crash

Bitcoin rallied toward the $87,000 level on Friday, October 2, 2026, riding a hot streak of inflows into US spot BTC ETFs. 

With US spot Bitcoin funds about $5 billion away from setting a new cumulative volume record, it is setting up for the kind of “Uptober” token holders expected before the now-infamous 10/10 crash ended seven years of consecutive October gains and sent the market into a year-long recovery phase. 

Bitcoin holders pin hopes on Uptober after seven-year streak ended

Historically, Bitcoin has posted monthly gains since 2018, which is where the “Uptober” name came from in the first place. However, October 2025 ended that streak, becoming the first time that the month ended in losses in seven years. 

Coincidentally, the month also erased all the gains the token had made for the year in what CoinShares described as one of the worst systemic events in crypto’s history, just four days after the token set an all-time high of $126,080 on October 6. 

According to CoinShares, the forced liquidations wave that followed Donald Trump’s announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese imports wiped out roughly $19 billion. That crash was nine times the size of the February 2025 dip in terms of scale and 19 times the meltdown from March 2020 or the FTX collapse. 

Bitcoin ETF flows are still in catch-up mode 

Institutional demand has still not fully recovered one year on. $102.7 million flowed into US spot Bitcoin ETFs to open the month on October 1, per SoSoValue data. 

Cryptopolitan reported that Q3 2026 was the strongest quarter of 2026, ending with $6.49 billion in inflows after $4.51 billion of outflows for Q2, which ended in June.

Bloomberg’s James Seyffart wrote on X on September 21, the same day that Bitcoin funds drew almost an annual high of $999 million in daily inflows, that the average Bitcoin ETF holder was back above water for the first time since January.

Buyers clear $85,000 as shorts get squeezed

Price action this week has tracked the order book more than the calendar. Bitcoin reached $86,857 on Friday, its highest mark since September 23, after buyers punched through a band of sell orders near $85,000 that Glassnode said had kept trading rangebound. 

BTC shorts were hit the hardest, with $122 million in short positions liquidated during a 24-hour period, while $210 million was liquidated across the market. 

The $86,000 zone carries extra weight because it sits near the aggregate breakeven point for US spot ETF investors. CoinGlass data flagged a cluster of potential liquidations stacking above $87,300. 

Glassnode cautioned that the breakout needs backing, writing that higher trading volume and a return of stronger ETF inflows would confirm genuine support for the uptrend rather than a squeeze.

The Fed will determine the next leg

The bigger variable is monetary policy. The Federal Reserve lifted its benchmark rate to a 3.75% to 4% range on September 16, its first hike since 2023, and the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.17% on September 25. 

A softer core PCE print on September 30, up 0.2% in August and 3% year over year, pushed the odds of an October hike from roughly 71% to below 50%.

That puts the Fed’s October 27-28 meeting ahead of seasonality as the catalyst traders are watching. History still leans bullish on paper: Cryptopolitan cited a median Q4 Bitcoin return of 26.59% since 2013. 

Sentiment is holding in “Greed,” with Alternative.me’s Fear & Greed Index at 72.

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