Ethereum Bottom Signal Emerges as Binance NUPL Returns to Key Historical Zone

What to Know

• Ethereum Binance NUPL has fallen toward -0.35, a historical stress zone linked with several major ETH market bottoms since 2019.
• Historical patterns show extreme unrealized losses can signal seller exhaustion, although additional retests or lower price levels remain possible afterward.
• A NUPL recovery above the threshold while Ethereum holds its recent low would strengthen evidence supporting another market bottom formation.

 

Ethereum’s Binance NUPL has fallen toward -0.35, placing the metric inside a zone associated with several major ETH price bottoms. The reading indicates significant unrealized losses among Ethereum held on the cryptocurrency exchange.

According to CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_, similar NUPL levels appeared around important Ethereum market floors across several previous cycles. These periods include late 2019, March 2020, two phases during 2022, and the major 2025 correction.

Net Unrealized Profit and Loss measures the balance between unrealized profits and losses within a tracked supply group. Positive readings show aggregate unrealized profits, while negative readings indicate that holders remain underwater.

However, this measurement specifically covers ETH associated with Binance rather than Ethereum’s entire circulating supply. This distinction gives the indicator greater relevance to coins that may become available for exchange trading.

A reading around -0.35 reflects considerable financial stress among the tracked ETH supply. Historically, such pressure has emerged when major selloffs were already well developed.

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Binance ETH NUPL Signals Seller Exhaustion but Retest Risk Remains

CryptoQuant’s chart shows Binance NUPL reaching similar negative territory around Ethereum’s late 2019 market low. Another major decline pushed the metric into comparable territory during the March 2020 market crash. Moreover, the pattern appeared twice during Ethereum’s difficult 2022 market cycle. ETH approached roughly $1,000 during the first major capitulation phase.

Another period of severe holder losses developed around the $1,200 region later that year. Consequently, the indicator captured multiple stages of Ethereum’s broader bottom formation rather than one exact turning point.

The 2025 correction provides another important comparison with current market conditions. ETH dropped toward approximately $1,500 as Binance NUPL entered the highlighted negative region. Ethereum subsequently recovered from those depressed levels and eventually climbed above $4,000. Nevertheless, that recovery did not prevent another substantial market decline.

MorenoDV_ linked deeply negative NUPL readings with potential seller exhaustion. Weaker holders can realize their losses during severe declines, reducing the number of investors willing to sell. Additionally, remaining holders may resist selling once unrealized losses become increasingly severe. Reduced marginal supply can create better conditions for price stabilization when buying demand strengthens.

However, historical patterns show that entering the -0.35 region does not guarantee an immediate Ethereum reversal. Initial breaches have sometimes occurred before another retest or final lower low. Therefore, Ethereum’s reaction around its recent price floor remains important for confirming the signal. NUPL moving above -0.35 while ETH maintains that low would strengthen the bottoming case.

Conversely, deeper negative NUPL readings alongside new ETH lows would indicate additional capitulation. Such movement would suggest that selling pressure has not reached complete exhaustion.

Conclusion

Ethereum’s Binance NUPL has reached a historically significant stress region that accompanied several previous ETH market bottoms. The reading suggests the current selloff may have entered an advanced capitulation phase. However, a sustained NUPL recovery alongside a stable ETH price would provide stronger evidence that another meaningful Ethereum bottom is forming.

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