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How the Fed Decision Could Impact Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP Prices

2h ago•
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The Fed Decision is the big event for crypto today. Traders are waiting for the Federal Reserve's rate call and a press conference from Chair Kevin Warsh.

Federal Reserve rate call and a press conference from Chair Kevin Warsh

Before it, the crypto market gained 1.54% in 24 hours to near $2.71 trillion. Bitcoin is just under $81,000, Ether is above $2,350, and SOL is near $102.

XRP and DOGE rose about 2.43% and 3%. BNB is up 1%.

What Are the Odds of a Fed Rate Hike Today?

The current target rate is 3.75% to 4.00%. CME data shows a 90.6% chance the Fed holds. A hike has a 9.4% chance, and a cut sits at 0.0%.

The mood has changed fast. One month ago, a hike was the bigger bet.

Outcome

Now

1 Day Ago (26 Oct)

1 Week Ago (21 Oct)

1 Month Ago (28 Sep)

Hold (3.75% to 4.00%)

90.6%

88.9%

84.5%

29.1%

Hike (4.00% to 4.25%)

9.4%

11.1%

15.5%

70.9%

Hold odds jumped from 29.1% to 90.6% in a month. Most of the surprise may already be in prices.What Are the Odds of a Fed Rate Hike Today?

Is Bitcoin Going Up or Down Before the Fed Meeting?

Bitcoin rose nearly 1.50% and trades near $81,049. That wipes out part of the weekend drop.

The daily chart shows a descending channel. Price broke out from the $63,000 to $65,000 zone toward $87,400. Then it made lower highs and lower lows.

The RSI is near 46.64. That is below 50, so momentum looks weak, but not oversold.BTC/USDT PRICE CHART

Why Is Ethereum Struggling Below Its Key Averages?

Ethereum gained 1.90% and trades near $2,365. Still, it sits under the 20-day EMA at $2,425 and the 50-day EMA at $2,451.

It was rejected near $2,750 to $2,800 earlier. The RSI is around 39.

Buyers need to defend $2,300 to $2,320. If they do not, ETH could slide toward $2,250 and $2,200.

Asset

Price Now

Support

Resistance

RSI

Bitcoin

About $81,049

$79,000 to $80,000, then $76,000 to $78,000

$83,000 to $84,000, then $87,400

46.64

Ethereum

About $2,365

$2,320 to $2,300, then $2,250 and $2,200

$2,425 to $2,450, then $2,500 to $2,550

About 39

ETH/USDT PRICE CHART

These are chart levels, not promises.

What Is the XRP Outlook After the TD Sequential Buy Signal?

Ali Charts says the TD Sequential flashed a buy signal on the XRP 3-day chart. The latest candle carries a 9 marker, which completes the setup.

The last three similar signals were followed by rebounds. The chart also marks a 71.88% jump from the August low.

Signal

Rebound Marked on Chart

Earlier signal 1

+31.26%

Earlier signal 2

+24.38%

Earlier signal 3

+18.65%

August low

+71.88%

If $1.25 holds, a move toward $1.40 is possible. If it breaks while whales keep taking profits, $0.98 could come next.What Is the XRP Outlook After the TD Sequential Buy Signal?

Past results do not guarantee what happens next.

Are Crypto ETFs Seeing Inflows or Outflows?

Data is as of October 27. Bitcoin and Ether funds saw small one-day inflows. The 30-day picture is weaker.

Asset

1-Day Net Flow

30-Day Net Flow

Cumulative Flow

Net Assets

% of Market Cap

BTC

+$24.54M

-$253.51M

-$8.90B

$38.42B

2.36%

ETH

+$33.06M

-$1.31B

-$360.18M

$5.72B

1.99%

SOL

-$19.16M

-$92.59M

+$1.51B

$1.54B

2.57%

XRP

$0

+$14.86M

+$1.81B

$1.50B

1.79%

XRP is the only one with positive 30-day flows. BTC and ETH updates are still pending.Are Crypto ETFs Seeing Inflows or Outflows?

How Many Crypto Traders Got Liquidated in 24 Hours?

CoinGlass says 61,225 traders were liquidated. Total losses reached $148.67M.

Shorts took the hit. They made up 73% of the total, and long positions made up 27%.

Period

Total

Longs

Shorts

1 hour

$1.57M

$696.15K

$870.92K

4 hours

$13.49M

$3.66M

$9.82M

12 hours

$60.01M

$12.11M

$47.90M

24 hours

$148.67M

$40.09M

$108.59M

ETH led with $37.20M, and 83.5% of it was shorts. BTC followed with $32.37M, with 82.4% shorts.

ZEC saw $8.45M, Q saw $4.72M, SNDK saw $3.97M, and SOL saw $3.40M.

The biggest single order was $9.39M on Binance, an ETHUSDT short at $2,348.18. Binance had 46.5% of all liquidations.How Many Crypto Traders Got Liquidated in 24 Hours?

What Does the Fed Decision Mean for Crypto?

A hold is what most traders expect. That could keep things calm, though the tone of Warsh's press conference may matter more than the rate itself.

A surprise hike is a small risk at 9.4%. If it happens, risk assets could feel pressure.

Bitcoin needs to hold $79,000 to $80,000. Ether needs $2,300. XRP is watching $1.25.

Nobody knows how the market will react. The Fed Decision is one input, and ETF flows and liquidations will also shape the next move.

Disclaimer

This article is for information only. It is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Crypto prices are very volatile, and you can lose money. Technical levels are estimates, not guarantees. Do your own research and speak with a licensed financial advisor before you invest.

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