Vardan KhachatryanPrediction markets in the US
Legal nationwide under the CFTC. 19 states restrict or contest some contracts, every one of them over sports contracts.
- Federal regulator
- CFTC
- States restricting or contesting
- 19: Arizona, California, Connecticut, Iowa, Illinois, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Utah, Washington, Wisconsin
- Appeals courts that have ruled
- 3: the Third for Kalshi; the Sixth and Ninth against. The Ninth refused to rehear on November 4, 2026; the Sixth has not yet ruled
- Supreme Court
- 3 petitions pending: New Jersey (No. 26-299), Robinhood (No. 26-338) and Crypto.com's exchange (No. 26-344)
- CFTC rules on event contracts
- June 10 and October 9 proposals not yet final; an interim rule took effect October 19, 2026
- Matters tracked
- 89, 51 still open
- Last change
- November 4, 2026
Each entry on this page links the ruling or report it rests on. Nothing here is legal advice.
Why prediction markets are legal in the US
A prediction market sells event contracts. Each one is a yes-or-no question that pays $1 if the answer is yes.
Under the Commodity Exchange Act, those contracts are derivatives when they trade on a CFTC-designated exchange. The CFTC supervises them, not a state gaming board.
That is why the big apps work nationwide without 50 state licenses. Polymarket US and Kalshi hold that designation. Robinhood, Webull and Coinbase route orders to exchanges that do.
Federal approval is not the end of it. States say a sports contract is a bet, whatever exchange lists it, and several have gone to court.
US prediction market apps, and where each is limited
We rank 15 apps. Every one runs a CFTC-regulated exchange or routes orders to one, so all are legal federally.
Legal is not the same as open everywhere. Apps close states on their own or after court orders, mostly for sports.
The table follows our best prediction markets ranking, with how each app is regulated and where it is limited.
| App | How it is regulated | Where it is limited |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Runs its own exchange, KalshiEX, and clearinghouse, Kalshi Klear | Court orders bar its sports contracts in MI, NV and WA, and more categories in NV and WA |
| Gemini Predictions | Runs its own exchange, Gemini Titan, and clearinghouse, Gemini Olympus | Listed as available in all 50 states; Connecticut (September 2026) and Ohio (October 2026) ordered it to stop sports contracts |
| Polymarket US | Runs its own exchange, QCX, and clearinghouse, QC Clearing | A court order bars it in NV |
| OG | Runs its own exchange, NADEX, which also runs Crypto.com’s CDNA brand | No sports in IL, MA, MD, MI, NJ, NV or OH, and no markets in AZ, per OG in June 2026 |
| Interactive Brokers | Runs ForecastEx, and also routes to Kalshi and CME | No state list published and no sports contracts offered; 21 and over |
| ProphetX | Runs its own exchange and clearinghouse | Not operating in NV; other restricted locations are not named |
| Robinhood | A broker that routes to Kalshi, ForecastEx, CDNA and Rothera, a joint-venture exchange it controls | No sports contracts in MD, MI or NV; since Nov 2, 2026, no new sports positions in OH, and no new sports, culture, election or politics positions in UT |
| Coinbase | A broker that routes to Kalshi | Coinbase excludes NV, and MI for sports; a court order binds Kalshi, its exchange, in WA |
| Webull | A broker that routes to Kalshi | No sports contracts in CT, MD, MI or NV; a Washington court order binds Kalshi, its exchange |
| Novig | Runs its own exchange, Ludlow Exchange | Not available in AZ, MI or NV; 21 and over |
| DraftKings Predictions | A broker that routes to DKeX, DraftKings’ own exchange, plus CDNA and CME | Sports contracts in 18 states; nothing in ME or NH |
| Fanatics Markets | A broker that routes to CDNA | Open in 21 states, plus Guam, Puerto Rico, American Samoa and the US Virgin Islands; 21 and over |
| FanDuel Predicts | A broker, run with CME Group, that routes to CME and to NADEX, the exchange behind OG | Financial markets in every state; sports only in 17 states where FanDuel has no online sportsbook |
| PrizePicks | A broker that routes to Kalshi | Sports contracts in 31 states; no event contracts in AZ, NV, NY, UT or WA |
| Underdog Predict | A broker that routes to UDX, Underdog’s own exchange, plus Kalshi and CDNA | Open in 46 states and DC; not in AZ, MI, NV or NY |
How is Kalshi legal?
Kalshi was the first US exchange built for event contracts. The CFTC designated it a contract market in November 2020.
Then it fought its own regulator. The CFTC blocked contracts on which party would control Congress, and Kalshi sued.
In September 2024, a federal judge in Washington ruled the CFTC had overstepped. Election contracts went live within days.
The CFTC dropped its appeal in May 2025. Today Kalshi lists politics, economics, crypto, weather, culture and sports.
Sports are where its legality is contested. Our Kalshi review covers each lawsuit, and our California page shows how one state's fight plays out.
How is Polymarket US legal?
It holds its own federal designation. Polymarket US runs on QCX LLC, which the CFTC designated as an exchange on July 9, 2025.
It took four years to get there. In January 2022, the CFTC fined Polymarket $1.4 million for running unregistered markets, and it blocked US users.
Polymarket bought QCX and its clearinghouse for $112 million in July 2025. A CFTC order in November 2025 let it serve US customers through brokers.
Polymarket US is open everywhere except Nevada, where a court order bars it. Tennessee ordered it to stop sports contracts in January, and it never challenged the order. New York sued it on September 24, 2026, and several states contest its sports contracts.
The international site, polymarket.com, is a different product. It is not CFTC-regulated, and Americans can only close old positions there. Our Polymarket review covers both.
Every state, both exchanges and how to sign up: is Polymarket legal in the US?
Which states restrict prediction markets
No state has shut every app out. The fights are narrower, and most are about sports contracts.
Some go further. Arizona's charges cover election contracts, Washington's order reaches most categories, and New York's suits target every event contract.
Minnesota passed a ban on event contracts, but a federal judge put it on hold in July 2026.
Letters are the newest front. Ohio's casino regulator told 10 firms to stop sports contracts on October 2. Missouri's attorney general wrote to six in September.
Letters alone put nothing in force. On October 16, Polymarket US sued Ohio, while Crypto.com's exchange and Novig sued Missouri.
Kentucky is in court too. Its attorney general sued Polymarket US, Kalshi and Robinhood in June 2026, and nothing is in force there yet. Utah's attorney general sued Kalshi in state court on October 20, 2026.
The table lists every state where an app's status differs from its national position. Each state links its own page.
Every state and DC has its own page: which apps accept its residents, what it has said, and how that compares with its sports betting law.
Why the courts disagree
Every case turns on one question. Is a sports event contract a swap under the Commodity Exchange Act?
If it is, federal law pushes state gambling law aside. If it is not, states can enforce their own rules.
The Third Circuit said yes on April 6, 2026, in New Jersey's case. Kalshi won.
The Ninth Circuit said no on August 28, in Nevada's case. The Sixth Circuit agreed on September 25, in cases from Ohio and Tennessee.
So the same contract is federally protected in New Jersey and a state matter in Nevada. The Ninth Circuit refused to rehear Nevada's case on November 4. Kalshi's request to the Sixth is still pending.
Trial courts differ too. On October 2, an Illinois federal judge found the state's licensing law likely preempted as applied to Kalshi.
Three petitions now ask the Supreme Court to decide. It has not said whether it will hear any of them.
What the CFTC is doing
The regulator has changed course. In June 2024, it proposed barring exchanges from listing contracts on elections and games.
It withdrew that proposal on February 4, 2026. On June 10, it proposed new rules that keep most sports contracts.
The draft would bar contracts on injuries, officiating calls and single in-game actions. Comments closed on July 27.
Just before that, 44 states wrote that the CFTC has no authority over sports contracts at all. The June rules are not final yet.
On October 9, the CFTC went further. It proposed defining “swap” to include event contracts, sports among them.
That is the question the Ninth and Sixth Circuits decided against Kalshi. Comments are due November 18, and it is a proposal, not law.
The same day, it adopted an interim final rule, in effect from October 19. It says sportsbook and casino wagers are not swaps.
On November 5, the CFTC said exchanges generally may not limit access by US state. That interpretation took effect November 10.
The CFTC is also going to court against states. It and the United States sued Utah on October 26. It says it has started proceedings against nine other states.
Prediction markets vs sports betting
The products look alike. You pick a side, pay a price and collect if you are right.
The structure differs. A sportsbook sets the odds and takes the other side. On an exchange, you trade against other people, and the exchange charges a fee.
The oversight differs too. A state licenses and taxes each sportsbook. A CFTC exchange needs no state license, which is exactly what states object to.
That is also why these apps reach states with no legal sports betting, such as California and Texas.
Insider trading and other federal rules
Federal law still governs how you trade. Using secret or stolen information can be a crime, on these apps as anywhere else.
In April 2026, prosecutors charged a US soldier with trading on classified plans, for a profit of about $410,000.
In May, they charged a Google engineer who allegedly made about $1.2 million from inside information.
Both cases target the traders, not the apps. The exchanges run their own market surveillance too.
What would settle it
Three things could. The likeliest is the Supreme Court, where three petitions are pending. New Jersey filed first, on September 2, 2026.
A ruling there would bind every state at once. Responses to the petitions are now due December 7.
The CFTC could finish its rules. Its October proposal would define sports contracts as swaps, and Kalshi already cites it in court. Even a final rule would not, on its own, end the fight over state law.
Congress could amend the Commodity Exchange Act to say who regulates sports contracts. No such bill has passed.
Until then, the answer depends on your state and your app.
The latest rulings and actions
The newest matters on file, each linked to its docket or report. The full list is in our litigation tracker.
Are prediction markets legal outside the US?
It depends on the country and the app. Kalshi restricts trading in 55 countries under its member agreement.
Polymarket's international site blocks 4 countries outright and limits 37 more to closing positions.
Local law can still treat event contracts as gambling where neither app restricts them.
Our availability table lists both apps, country by country, with how to fund from each.
Availability by country